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Bitcoin In A Fragile Flow Regime

Bitcoin Correlations Report, December 2025

Ecoinometrics

Dec 17

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Bitcoin’s price remains stuck inside the range implied by our ETF-flows-to-price model. In other words, price action is behaving exactly as expected given the state of flows. And if nothing changes the model sees Bitcoin stuck in that range for the weeks to come.

As we discussed on Monday, the FOMC meeting failed to act as a catalyst. It neither reignited risk appetite nor triggered a renewed risk-off move.

When discrete events fail to move the market, price action tends to fall back on structure rather than headlines. In Bitcoin’s case, that structure is defined by flows and correlations to the rest of the macro landscape.

That raises a more relevant question for the near term: does Bitcoin’s current correlation regime provide any directional bias, or are flows still pointing to a continuation of sideways price action?

That’s what we’ll explore today.

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Bitcoin In A Fragile Flow Regime

The Takeaway

Bitcoin remains trapped in a stabilization phase, with price action behaving in line with ETF flow dynamics and no meaningful catalyst emerging from recent macro events.

The broader correlation regime that links Bitcoin to U.S. tech and gold remains intact, but current flow dynamics across those assets are neutral, offering little external directional guidance...