As Bitcoin inches closer to its much-anticipated halving event, the air is thick with speculation and anticipation. This blog post peels back the layers of the Bitcoin ecosystem's current state, exploring how miners brace for change, how network traffic adjusts in response, and what these shifts mean for the broader economic landscape. Join us as we navigate through these transformative times, providing a detailed narrative on the complexities that shape the future of Bitcoin in a post-halving world.
The Bitcoin miner route continues. Most of the companies observed have experienced notable price declines over the past 30 days in both USD and bitcoin terms. For instance, the largest miner, Marathon (MARA), saw its price drop by over 30% in USD and 26% in bitcoin terms. These trends mirror the broader market's consolidation, fueled by uncertainty surrounding the upcoming halving and rampant speculation by mainstream media. The narrative spun around this event suggests it could bring a major shakeup, potentially leading to the extinction of less resilient miners.
Despite the grim predictions, miners’ share prices are expected to recover post-halving as uncertainty gives way to optimism and price appreciation for bitcoin. Today’s market moves might already be hinting at this possible turnaround. For instance, the share prices of major companies have surged by 4-5%, suggesting that investor confidence may be rebounding as the halving event transitions from a looming threat to a passed milestone.
Halving and Production Updates: We are currently mid-month, so public production and revenue numbers will not be updated until 2-3 weeks after the halving. In this period, miners with higher bitcoin reserves should be perceived in a better light by the market.
Expansion Plans: Most miners are either just completing or in the middle of massive expansion plans. RIOT, for example, recently energized part of their new facility in Navarro County, Texas. They are on track to increase their hash rate by nearly 150%. Companies with large reserves and expansion plans have the potential to outperform rivals or even spot bitcoin.
The hash rate, measured over a 7-day moving average, has increased by approximately 7% from 599.29 EH/s a month ago to 641.11 EH/s. This rise indicates optimism from miners despite the FUD surrounding the halving. They are gearing up for the post-halving competition, likely anticipating a spot price rise...
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