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Bitcoin is Ready for Post-Halving Bullish Continuation

Analyzing Bitcoin's growth readiness, highlighting a cooling derivatives market, global shifts toward safer assets, and a maturing on-chain environment post-halving

Bitcoin Magazine Pro and Ansel Lindner

Apr 23

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Introduction

Our data suggest a market fully reset from overbought conditions last month and ready for a renewed push higher. On-chain metrics are exactly what we would expect from the end of a mid-cycle adjustment. Price metrics show bullish trends are intact, while the derivatives market has moved back into balance from multiple fronts. Lastly, the global macro numbers are still agreeing with our forecast for economic slowdown pushing investors into safer assets, in the US and globally.

On-Chain Bitcoin Metrics Post-Halving

The first stat that jumps out is the Realized HODL Ratio, which has decreased significantly from 4,588 to 3,109 over the last 30 days, showing a substantial -32.23% change. This drop suggests that the tendency to hold Bitcoin has softened leading into the halving and could be quite bullish for the price as this trend reverses in the coming weeks.

The MVRV Z-Score is instrumental in identifying whether Bitcoin is undervalued or overvalued compared to its 'fair value,' which is calculated based on the realized cap. The decrease from 2.69 to 2.49 over the past month indicates that the market is cooling off slightly from a relatively higher valuation, moving closer towards what might be considered a fair or undervalued range according to this metric.

The movement metrics such as 90-Days Coin Days Destroyed, which has decreased by -6.92%, and the STH LTH Cost Basis Ratio, also down by -6.62%, both signify decreased movement of older coins and a cautious approach among both short-term and long-term holders. This aligns with the narrative of a mid-cycle correction where investors are possibly waiting for clearer signs of an upward trajectory post-halving...

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