An in-depth analysis of the current state of Bitcoin mining, network activity, and market forces as the halving event draws near, revealing strategic insights for investors.
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| As the Bitcoin halving draws near, the public mining sector presents a mixed performance, with no noticeable correlation to BTC reserves, production, or production per hash rate. Miners with high levels of BTC should be more insulated from the volatility around the halving. Mining activity points to preparation for the halving with fewer BTC being sent from miners to exchanges and miners’ wallet balances rising. Lastly, network traffic is highly turbulent with a massive spike in fees amidst whispers of potential spam attacks and rising speculative interest as evidenced by rising number of inscriptions. Be prepared for heightened volatility over the next two weeks. Cipher (CIFR) stands out with a 30.91% increase in USD price and a 36.55% increase in Bitcoin price, highlighting its exceptional performance during this period. TeraWulf (WULF) is not far behind with 28.14% and 33.65% performances respectively. Hut 8 (HUT) also is hanging onto a positive performance of 12.02% and 16.83% respectively. Northern Data (NB2) is the standout loser over the last 30 days. RIOT has been disappointing as well. Among the other losers we have Bitfarms (BITF), Stronghold (SDIG) and Mawson (MIGI), all with double-digit losses in both USD and BTC. There is no correlation between BTC held (0.006), Production/Hash (0.04) or Production (0.02) in general to stock market performance. Uncertainty and BTC HODL: Investment in mining stocks is influenced by the uncertainty surrounding halvings. Post-halving, miners holding substantial Bitcoin reserves are expected to have a performance edge over those with minimal or no reserves, thanks to their financial cushion. Timely Outperformance: A mining company that outperforms the market during the heightened uncertainty before a halving could indicate that its operational strategy is well-tuned to the forthcoming changes in block rewards. This outperformance might reflect the company's strategic efficiency and readiness for the halving, contrasting with other miners who might be conserving their resources in anticipation of the event. Miners to Watch: The above two insights combined, highlight HUT and CIFR as two companies that are outperforming, heading into the halving and have high and/or growing bitcoin reserves. WULF does not publish their bitcoin reserves in monthly statements...
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