We estimate Coinbase net revenue for Q1 2024 to be $1.5 billion, growing by 65% for the quarter. Our estimate is much higher than the consensus gross revenue estimate of $1.2 billion. Bitcoin spot ETF approval and fresh all-time-highs meant trading volume doubled in Q1 2024. As volume surged, we expect transaction revenue to follow a similar trajectory and grow by 89% for the quarter to ~$1 billion.
Investments in non-trading revenue lines continue to payoff for Coinbase and may contribute 33% of revenue. The largest component, stablecoin revenue, may grow by 12% for the quarter, in line with the growth in USDC supply. We expect blockchain rewards from Coinbase's staking service to grow by 45% with higher average prices across all supported Proof-of-Stake assets.
Coinbase's revenue is future-proof with custody income and Base sequencer revenue likely to play a more significant role going forward.
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🗓️ State of 1inch Q1 2024. 1inch usage grew across the board in the first quarter of 2024 with total volumes rising to $43 billion. Unlike Q4, where only volumes showed life, Q1 saw DAUs and the number of transactions jump meaningfully in the 1inch Aggregation Protocol. Larger trades drove the increased volume in the Limit Order Protocol and Fusion. However, 1inch's peers grew faster in the quarter, bringing 1inch down to 51% DEX aggregator volume market share. The treasury is steady in value, spending under $2 million in the quarter with no new asset allocation decisions. As the DAO and product continue to grow and mature, they have brought on legal services through STORM Partners and attracted large integrations with the likes of Lido and Stripe. Time and again, 1inch has capitalized on the surge in onchain activity.
Nominate A Mainnet Speaker. Now it's your turn to nominate who you would like to see on stage at Mainnet 2024 in NYC. If you know someone who is building the next big thing in the industry, let us know using the form so they can join the conversation. Join us in September.
NEW Diligence Reports. What's new this week with Messari Diligence Reports? Our Diligence team is pleased to share that Diligence Reports on LPT (Livepeer), BLUR (Blur), KEP (KelpDAO), ONDO (Ondo Finance), WHALES (Whales Market), and FLOKI (Floki) have been released this week. Our 200+ Diligence Reports empower users to gain a comprehensive understanding of any asset or protocol through structured in-depth reports that address key aspects such as core project details, legal & regulatory risks, economics, and technology. Enterprise users can purchase either as a bundle with flexible pricing, or choose to purchase individual report access. Current Enterprise subscribers can enjoy five complimentary reports. Explore Diligence today! [Messari Governance] [Hop DAO] HOP Single Sided Liquidity. This proposal aims to LP 25 million HOP as single sided liquidity in the HOP/ETH 0.30% Univ3 pool on Ethereum. The proposal explains that this will increase the TVL of the HOP pool, which is currently at $280,000, by $1.2 million. The proposal states that if the liquidity is determined to be having negative impacts on HOP, liquidity can be pulled at any time.
[Messari Key Developments] [Wormhole] MultiGov. The Wormhole team has announced it will be building "MultiGov: an industry-first multichain governance system soon available to DAOs on Solana, Ethereum mainnet, and EVM L2s" in collaboration with Tally and ScopeLift. The MultiGov product aims to enable Multichain governance that lets DAOs operate on any chain and allows members to "raise proposals, delegate, vote, and generally participate in governance for an onchain DAO from whichever chain they hold tokens on." The Wormhole DAO will be the first DAO to use MultiGov.
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Knowledge Seekers Rejoice, It's Quarterly Season! What are Messari Quarterly Reports?
With the arrival of the new year, the Messari team is excited to kickoff the release of our Q4 2023 quarterly reports. Our quarterly reports highlight top crypto protocols and present key metrics & indicators as well as important events to provide a full picture of the project's latest developments. Learn more about projects you are invested in or interested in and receive a clear look at project fundamentals and financial reporting.
Dive into our current and past quarterly reports available in our Protocol Reporting research page. Keep an eye out for reports with "🗓️" in Unqualified Opinions so you don't miss them! |
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Disclosure: Authors may own cryptoassets named in this newsletter. For more information, please visit messari.io.
Unqualified Opinions, a Messari newsletter, is meant for informational purposes only. It is not meant to serve as investment advice. Please consult with your investment, tax, or legal advisor before making any investment decisions. Advertising and sponsorship do not influence editorial decisions or content. Third party advertisements and links to other sites where products or services are advertised are not endorsements or recommendations by Messari. Messari is not responsible for the content of the ads, promises made, or the quality or reliability of the products or services offered in any third party advertisement. |
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