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"So we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past." | | - F. Scott Fitzgerald |
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Thursday Halving Fun Mailbag |
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Q: Are we halving fun yet? |
Not yet, no. |
Bitcoin's break above $70,000 feels anti-climatic because it was so short-lived, crypto is conspicuously underperforming the current mini-correction in risk assets, ETF inflows are sputtering, memecoins have stopped going up (and what's the point of a memecoin that's not going up?), Ordinals have lost steam, we haven't made any obvious progress on crypto use cases, the SEC is back on the anti-crypto warpath and the deluge that rained out Token2049 in Dubai feels like an anti-crypto act of God. |
That is probably an overreaction to what will probably prove to be a standard dip in an upwards-trending market. |
But I do think the cycle is different this time, if for no other reason than it doesn't have the manic energy of previous ones. |
This should ultimately be good news, of course, because sugar highs don't last, and going up just because we're going up is not a sustainable dynamic, even in crypto. |
A more subdued cycle, if that's what we're having, might become a more sustainable cycle if it gives us more time to find a more substantial reason for all of the going up we've already done. |
And we could use the substance — it's still mostly an article of faith that crypto will produce utility that's even remotely commensurate with the token prices it's produced. |
But lots of hopeful things are happening and, with luck, a less-manic kind of bull market will refocus attention and resources on those sorts of things. |
Also, the halving is in one day! |
Q: Does the halving even matter? |
You'd be forgiven for not knowing we're just a day or two away from the next Bitcoin halving event, because it hasn't generated nearly as much interest as you'd expect, given how foundational it is in Bitcoin lore. |
That might be because the excitement around bitcoin ETFs has pulled forward the all-time highs that we'd normally expect after a halving. |
Or it might be that there wasn't much else to look forward to in previous cycles — bitcoin remains surprisingly dominant in price, but its mindshare within the industry is far lower than it used to be (even accounting for the recent excitement around Ordinals and L2s). |
Or it might be that halvings don't matter much anymore, as each one is less significant than the previous one: The first halving cut emissions from 50 bitcoin per block to 25 while the upcoming fourth halving will cut emissions only from 6.25 to 3.125. |
Or it might be that the halvings never mattered much to start with. |
The idea that regular reductions in supply are why bitcoin goes up is more narrative than statistical reality. |
Yes, bitcoin went up a lot around the last two halvings, but that's only because bitcoin almost always goes up a lot — just because bitcoin usually goes up on, say, Mondays, doesn't mean that Mondays are what make bitcoin go up. |
The sample sizes are too small to draw definitive conclusions, but we also have a very recent precedent to draw on: Consider that Bitcoin Cash had its halving two weeks ago, on April 4, and is now trading 28% lower. |
I take that underperformance as confirmation of my prior bias that bitcoin's capped supply isn't as all-important as it's generally made out to be. |
If that sounds sacrilegious to you, answer me this: If Satoshi had set bitcoin's issuance cap at half of the current 21 million, would bitcoin be worth double its current $1.25 trillion market capitalization? |
Counterfactuals are disprovable, but creating half the number of bitcoin presumably would not have doubled the demand for them. I take that as evidence that it's the demand side that matters most. |
Counterintuitively, that may be what the quadrennial reductions in supply are really about: Satoshi himself may have viewed them primarily as a way to draw attention to bitcoin. |
This, too, confirms my prior: Scarcity doesn't create value — but the meme of scarcity does. |
Q: Is bitcoin a memecoin then? |
I see what you're doing here — you're trying to get me crypto-canceled and I won't take the bait. |
The cryptocurrency bitcoin is the native token for the Bitcoin blockchain, so it has real utility — and bitcoin is money because it's the unit of account and means of exchange for NFTs on the Bitcoin blockchain, as well as in a growing ecosystem of Bitcoin-based DeFi. |
Someone not afraid of being crypto-canceled might argue that DOGE, (which everyone agrees is a memecoin), is also the native token of the Dogecoin blockchain. And that Ordinals, inscriptions and DeFi on Bitcoin is an incredibly niche market that's hardly six months old. |
That sort of brave truth-teller might also argue that the overwhelming majority of bitcoin's $1.25 trillion market capitalization could only possibly be attributed to the idea of Bitcoin — and that the price of bitcoin simply goes up when the idea of Bitcoin spreads. |
So where do I stand? |
I might say Bitcoin is a meme but that bitcoin is not a memecoin — and hope that my cagey use of capitalization makes both sides think I agree with them. |
― Byron Gilliam |
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How the Bitcoin halving could impact ailing mining stocks — Read Crypto trader convicted in $110M Mango Markets fraud trial: Bloomberg — Read Bitcoin's halving is a major spectacle — that's the whole point — Read Index tokens offer new path to diversified ETH yields — Read Halving Q&A: Solo bitcoin miners are 'vital' for the ecosystem — Read
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Thousands of rollups will continue to launch. With that, rollup interoperability presents a major challenge. |
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Does The Bitcoin Halving Still Matter? |
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This week we discuss the current state of crypto after the weekend flash crash. As Bitcoin struggles to break $70,000 with conviction, will the 2024 halving be a strong catalyst for more bullish price action going forward? |
Watch or listen to 1000x on YouTube, Spotify or Apple. |
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| cdixon.eth @cdixon | |
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I wrote an oped in @FT. My goal isn't to defend or to diminish memecoins. It's to point out the backward incentives of a regulatory regime in the US that lets only memecoins thrive — while companies and tokens with more productive uses face hurdles. ft.com/content/1ceaa1… | | Apr 18, 2024 | | | | 7 Likes 3 Retweets 0 Replies |
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| Will @WClementeIII | |
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Ray Dalio waking up to Bitcoin as "non-debt money" in his latest blog post | | | Apr 18, 2024 | | | | 925 Likes 157 Retweets 44 Replies |
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| Token Terminal @tokenterminal | |
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$200B plus finance & tech companies ranked based on buyback yield ethereum ranks #16 ethereum is only 9 years old, when the median age of the other S&P 500 companies on the list is 44 years goes to show how scalable & profitable Internet-native businesses can be at best | | | Apr 18, 2024 | | | | 49 Likes 8 Retweets 1 Reply |
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