Dear Readers,
Its Thinking Time! Buckle up for a quick recap of global events. This week we cover the rise of electronic warfare and China’s attempts to revive its economy.
TBL Thinks is our way to summarize the most important paywalled, longer reads relevant to global macroeconomics, helping you cut through the noise. With that in mind, please enjoy.
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Exploding Pagers and the Tech Race with China (WSJ) Software has ushered in a new phase of warfare.
In 2022, Russian soldiers stole millions worth of John Deere equipment from a farm equipment dealer in Ukraine, only to find the machines had been remotely disabled.
Also in 2022, Tesla owners found their cars were banned for a two-month period around the site of the CCP’s annual conclave due to concerns about cameras installed in the vehicles—the car has since been banned at other sites over similar concerns.
In January, the FBI announced that Volt-Typhoon, a Chinese state-sponsored group, had embedded malware in America’s critical infrastructure and could destroy systems that kept homes, businesses, and hospitals running.
This year, the Biden administration issued a warning that Chinese-made port cranes could be controlled from remote locations, and Chinese spy malware was found in European shipping companies’ systems.
This past week, pagers and walkie-talkies were used in Lebanon and Syria as weapons of mass destruction.
The weaponization of commercial hardware and software will drive a bifurcation in the technology stack between the free world and its totalitarian rivals. With billions of endpoints connecting to the internet, including sensors and devices that physically interact with devices, anyone with a modicum of control over the technology stack of semiconductors, cellular modules, or hardware devices can use it to weaponize and wreak havoc.
As the CCP positions to remove American technology and software from the party’s technological stack and requires that technologies from social-media apps to AI models reflect the party’s socialist values, there is increased skepticism behind the current administration’s belief that China can be persuaded to use AI for humanity’s benefit. It seems like a tall order for the same party that uses facial recognition to ethnically profile Uighurs as part of their persecution in Xinjiang.
Electronic warfare is also affecting hundreds of daily flights around the world as they encounter GPS spoofing, a fake signal used by militaries to ward off drones and missiles, but now also affecting commercial planes and US-based international flights. According to those in the aviation industry, spoofed GPS signals are spreading beyond areas of conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East, and confusing cockpit navigation and safety systems. Fake data can cause glitches that last a few minutes or the entire flight, with pilots reporting clocks resetting to earlier times, false warnings, and misdirected flight paths. Airlines are working together with aircraft makers, suppliers, and air-safety regulators to come up with short-term solutions and long-term fixes, but equipment standards designed to harden civilian aircraft against spoofing won’t be issued until next year at the earliest.
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China Tries to Jolt Ailing Economy (WSJ) China’s central bank announced several measures to support the country’s weakening economy and its moribund stock market. While the measures are welcome, economists fear they won’t be enough to pull China’s economy out of a low-grow rut as it battles falling prices, a real estate crisis, and tensions over trade.
The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a cut for its benchmark interest rates, along with lowering the amount of cash banks need to hold in reserve. It also said it would cut interest rates on existing mortgages and lower down payments for second homes. Further easing is in the pipeline, and another reduction is bank reserve requirements is expected before the end of the year.
The PBoC also said it would offer 500 billion yuan in loans (~$70 billion) to funds, brokers, and insurers to buy Chinese stocks, and put up another 300 billion yuan to finance share buybacks by listed companies, in an effort to revive the country’s stock market. Direct targeting of equity prices by the central bank is rare, but an incredibly interesting and, we believe, material development.
These measures come at the heels of weakening activity in China’s economy, which is at risk of missing the government’s official growth target of around 5% for the full year. These measures also closely followed the Fed’s move to cut interest rates and support the labor market, leading us to believe that currency maneuvering between the two countries could be at play. High interest rates in the US tend to weaken other countries’ currencies against the dollar and channel foreign capital toward US stock and bond markets. The Fed’s decision provides some relief to the PBOC which wants to prevent capital flight and the Chinese currency from weakening uncontrollably. Markets have reinforced the Chinese yuan’s strengthening after the Fed cut by further rallying on this week’s stimulus—a weak dollar could be that global liquidity boost the world is looking for.
With consumer confidence near record-low levels, weakening activity hitting tax revenues, local governments struggling to meet their borrowing quotas on viable infrastructure projects, and an ailing housing market, it remains to be seen if the PBoC’s measures are enough to resuscitate China’s economy.
Until next time,
TBL Thinks
Unchained empowers you to fully control your Bitcoin with a collaborative multisig vault, where you hold two of three keys and benefit from a dedicated Bitcoin security partner. Purchase bitcoin directly into your cold storage vault and eliminate exchange risks with Unchained's Trading Desk.
Unchained also offers the best IRA product in the industry, allowing you to easily roll over old 401(k)s or IRAs into Bitcoin while keeping control of your keys.
Don’t pay more taxes than you need to. Use code TBL for $100 off when you create an account.
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