Crypto Preps for 'Liberation Day' gm Bankless Nation,
Crypto's traders have tariffs on the mind, and not much else. Today's Issue ⬇️ - ☀️ Need to Know: Circle Drops S-1
The stablecoin issuer's IPO is on the way. - 🗣️ Analysis: Liberation Day Impact
How are crypto traders positioning?
p.s. Read the launch post for our new product suite, FaceFi, featuring collaborations with some of the crypto industry's top faces.
Sponsor: Mantle — Mantle is building the largest sustainable hub for onchain finance. . . . NEED TO KNOW Circle Drops S-1 - 🏦 Stablecoin Giant Circle Files for IPO. The stablecoin issuer Circle has filed for an IPO on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol CRCL.
- 🇺🇸 New 'Solana Policy Institute' Establishes Formal Lobbying Group for the Blockchain. Solana's policy supporters establish a formal group to lobby politicians in Washington.
- 🏆 Ethereum Reclaims Top Monthly DEX Trading Volume Spot from Solana. Ethereum has regained its position as the top chain for decentralized exchanges for the first month since September.
📸 Daily Market Snapshot: Crypto prices started April with a recovery bump, with ETH popping more than 5% as traders placed their bets ahead of Trump's so-called 'Liberation Day' announcement Tuesday, where he has pledged to enact a slew of new tariffs. | Prices as of 6pm ET | 24hr | 7d |  | Crypto $2.74T | ↗ 1.7% | ↘ 4.2% |  | BTC $85,300 | ↗ 3.6% | ↘ 2.6% |  | ETH $1,916 | ↗ 5.4% | ↘ 7.0% | . . . ANALYSIS How Could 'Liberation Day' Impact Crypto? Trump’s long-awaited “Liberation Day” tariff announcement will touch down tomorrow, and with it, the possibility of a sweeping 20% tariff across all imports — a proposal once floated on the campaign trail that now appears back in serious contention. The path here has been winding and chaotic, filled with multiple postponements, shifting timelines, and last-minute pivots. So far this week, messaging has shifted from tariffs on “all countries worldwide, no exemption” on Sunday to tariffs as “relatively lenient” and “very kind” come Monday. This kind of back and forth has left markets jittery — and crypto, as a 24/7 market, is often ground zero for those reactions. With sentiment able to pivot on a dime, and Trump known to flip the tone with a single Truth Social post, the big question is what kind of footing crypto is really on heading into the announcement.
1️⃣ Bitcoin Is Holding Up BestIn a sea of chop, Bitcoin is quietly leading. Over the past month, while all are down, $BTC has outperformed the S&P, NASDAQ, and the Magnificent 7, surprising behavior given $BTC’s historical behavior of trading like a tech stock. Part of this is structural – crypto markets trade 24/7, and that speed often helps price-in news right away, meaning $BTC may have front-run the tariff-induced market unease in Jan/Feb, before traditional markets. But part of it is sentiment — Bitcoin has yet to crack, even with all eyes on tomorrow’s tariff news. - Calm, but holding strong: $BTC is currently sitting mid-range between support and resistance — not at extremes, but with room to move either direction depending on how things shake out. But under the surface, things look surprisingly stable. As Ryan Silva, Head of Trading at Borderless Capital, points out, trading activity has slowed down, panic selling has eased, and long-term holders have quietly started buying again. It’s not explosive, but it’s definitely not falling apart.
- Demand still showing up: Not only does Saylor continue to buy, but he also recently increased the amount of money he wants to raise to buy $BTC (from $500M to $722.5M), indicating demand still certainly exists in the market. Beyond that, BTC ETF inflows have slowly returned after weeks of outflows—briefly flipping positive, though still shaky. Taken together, the picture suggests that long-term buyers haven’t gone anywhere.
All told, Bitcoin has held its ground while others slipped, with steady demand, calmer trading, and quiet accumulation hinting its foundation may be stronger than sentiment suggests. 2️⃣ Fed Tightening Winds Down + Liquidity Creeps InAs we very well know, for the last couple of years, the Fed has been trying to slow down the economy by raising interest rates and reducing how much money is flowing through the system. One way they’ve done that is by letting bonds they hold expire without replacing them — basically pulling cash out of the market. That kind of move usually hits riskier assets like crypto first. Starting today, though, they’re easing up. The Fed will slow down how much it’s shrinking its balance sheet. It’s not the same as starting “quantitative easing” or “printing money again,” but it does mean they’re not draining the system as aggressively as before. - Setup improves: Historically, when the Fed pauses, risk assets start breathing again. The benefits usually lag by about 10–12 weeks, meaning some believe Q2 will arrive with a much more constructive backdrop.
- Dollar flows turning up: Liquidity indicators are quietly rising, suggesting capital is starting to trickle back into the system. While it won’t flip the market overnight, this is how reversals often begin.
tl;dr: Tightening may not be over entirely, but for the first time in a while, the macro tide isn’t working against crypto. 3️⃣ Bitfinex Whales Are Going LongA signal that’s popped up again this week: whales on Bitfinex are going long in a big way, which, historically, is something worth paying attention to. Bitfinex is closely tied to Tether, and while it’s not the largest exchange by volume, it has a long track record of leading price action. In fact, analysts like Cole Garner have pointed out that big moves on Bitfinex often come before broader market rallies. The pattern repeats itself all the time: long positions on Bitfinex spike, and within 20–40 minutes, Bitcoin starts climbing, and then altcoins follow. - The “alpha cartel” effect: These margin longs often show up just before major moves and tend to ripple through the entire crypto market.
- A signal, not just noise: Even though Bitfinex isn’t the most active exchange, its margin books consistently offer clues about what might come next.
Right now, those clues are flashing bullish, which, in an otherwise uncertain market, may be the most interesting thing to watch. 4️⃣ Sentiment Is Cracking Across the BoardYet, while there are positive signs, it’s important to note that everyone — businesses, consumers, and investors — seems spooked. A new Philadelphia Fed survey shows a sharp drop in business confidence, one of the largest since before the 2022 downturn. While not a perfect indicator, similar plunges did show up ahead of the dot-com bust in 2000 and the global financial crisis in 2008. At the same time, investor sentiment is scraping the floor: over 60% of retail respondents in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) survey say they’re bearish, while Bank of America’s latest Fund Manager Survey shows the largest recorded drop in U.S. equity exposure. Even consumers are uneasy — 44.5% expect stock prices to fall, according to the Conference Board’s March report (h/t Blocmates). - Fear everywhere: This kind of across-the-board pessimism doesn’t guarantee a crash — but it does suggest risk appetite is drying up fast.
- Crypto’s contrarian setup: With positioning this defensive and liquidity improving, crypto is in a rare spot to benefit if markets get even a modest upside surprise, which it looks like they may be getting.
Put simply, the entire system looks nervous — and that kind of fear can either set the stage for further breakdowns, or provide the fuel for the next move higher.
So, where does that leave us heading into Liberation Day? The Fed is stepping back, liquidity is quietly improving, Bitcoin is holding steady around mid-range, and some of the savviest traders in the space are going long. Meanwhile, business confidence is wavering, and investor sentiment is scraping the floor. Ironically, those gloomier signals can actually pave the way for a sharp reversal — assuming we don’t get blindsided. And that’s where tomorrow comes in. A blanket 20% tariff could tighten financial conditions and send shockwaves through risk markets, particularly crypto. But a more measured rollout — or another delay — could flip the mood on a dime, especially if people are already braced for the worst. With Trump, everything can pivot on a single announcement, yet if he skews lenient as he says, crypto might find itself riding the fresh wave of optimism that is already brewing. Either way, the next 24 hours could set the tone for weeks to come.
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