A new version of our bi-weekly quantitative risk report for TBL Pros
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| Dear Readers, This week, we introduce a new version of Mean Median Mode—a weekly quantitative report summarizing bitcoin price analysis and global macro narratives to position investors and bitcoin watchers with the data that matters. We have decided to turn this report into a more concise and user-friendly Substack post. This creates a better flow and reading experience for everyone. So, without further ado, here’s our latest risk report.
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The introduction of volatility to the macro scene has upended bull markets across stocks and bitcoin, but how long will it last? Events of the past week since Liberation Day have caused a whipsaw in markets, and what we view as hysteria based on a misinterpretation of who is in charge. Not that volatility is unwarranted—a dislocation in Treasuries, which we will discuss more in this report, could have triggered a shift in messaging to single out China in the trade war. Trump said that 75 countries reached out to bring a peace offering, and he conceded a 90-day period to work out the terms. Treasury yields experienced record moves due to a combination of the highly leveraged “Treasury basis trade” and heightened volatility more broadly. Who was selling on Tuesday, and with what motivation, are questions we sit wondering but don’t have any tangible answers. Wednesday’s snap back in stocks and bitcoin was breathtaking but also a strong reminder that the entire fiat world is built upon thinner markets than you may have previously thought. Ten-year Treasuries went completely bidless yet are trading now right below the 4.33% area we’ve been watching for over a year. With all this volatility, we have to find an anchor for our analysis. It has officially become this speech by a friend of TBL, Steve Miran, who has delivered the White House’s official remarks on why this trade policy against China is taking place. It also outlines the concessions the White House is looking for from other countries, which are now experiencing a 90-day pause to get their acts together. In short, this is a global reordering, and it has begun. We have never taken a speech more seriously in terms of helping us understand the playbook and reasoning. Whether the Administration is successful in addressing the stated national emergency—trade deficits—and how long it might take are questions we’ll carry forward. Whether a success will require a global monetary reset is something we’re taking even more seriously because it pertains to bitcoin. The United States, in its pivot toward bitcoin, and in its discussion of Fort Knox, “unlocking the asset side” of the country’s balance sheet, and not to forget Bessent’s own desire to architect a new Bretton Woods (Mar a Lago) agreement, is setting up for something potentially big. Because Bretton Woods took place 81 years ago, making a projection that we get the next monetary reset in the next 4 years is bold, but we are readying our framework for this idea. This matters a lot for holders of bitcoin, as it puts bitcoin on a trajectory fit for a $20 trillion asset, like gold is today. In the meantime, we focus on the zoomed-in nature of TBL Liquidity and its components because that is what drives and will continue to drive bitcoin’s price action in the shorter term.
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