Our bi-weekly quantitative risk report for TBL Pros: May 14th, 2025 Edition

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	Forwarded this email? Subscribe here for more Mean Median Mode: Risk Shifting Our bi-weekly quantitative risk report for TBL Pros: May 14th, 2025 Edition Nik Bhatia, Augustine Carrasco, and Johan Bergman May 14 ∙ Preview   READ IN APP   Dear Readers, This week, we analyze the latest bull run in risk assets and what has driven it—that is, besides Trump. Welcome back to another edition of Mean Median Mode—a quantitative risk report summarizing bitcoin price analysis and global macro narratives to position investors and bitcoin watchers with the data that matters. So, without further ado, here’s our latest risk report. Table of Contents Performance Overview Bitcoin: Technical Analysis TBL Liquidity Bitcoin: Correlation Analysis Bitcoin On-Chain Analytics US Rates Analysis Fed Watch Money Market Analysis US Economy Analysis Every Business Will Buy Bitcoin Bitcoin isn’t just for the balance sheet anymore—it’s the benchmark. On Wednesday, May 14, at 11 AM CT, join Unchained, Strive, and other bitcoin-native thinkers for a live online event exploring how bitcoin is reshaping capital allocation. Learn why more companies are building bitcoin treasuries—and why those who don’t risk falling behind. Reserve Your Spot Blockstream Jade Plus is the easiest, most secure way to protect your Bitcoin—perfect for beginners and pros alike. With a sleek design, simple setup, and step-by-step instructions, you'll be securing your Bitcoin in minutes. Seamlessly pair with the Blockstream Green app on mobile or desktop for smooth onboarding. As your stack grows, Jade Plus grows with you—unlock features like the air-gapped JadeLink Storage Device or QR Mode for cable-free transactions using the built-in camera. Want more security? Jade Plus supports multisig wallets with apps like Blockstream Green, Electrum, Sparrow, and Specter. Protect your Bitcoin, sleep better, stack harder. Use code: TBL for 10% off. Take Control of Your Bitcoin Today Performance Overview Bitcoin is up 66% trailing 12 months, while gold posts gains of 38% and stocks 13%. Treasuries in the belly of the curve are flat on a total return basis looking back one year. Bitcoin: Technical Analysis High Time Frame On a high time frame, the chart looks promising. Bitcoin successfully regained the area between $92,000 and $105,000. If bears were genuinely in control, it would have made sense for them to prevent the price from reclaiming this range. Our base case scenario is that bitcoin will reach new all-time highs this year. With bitcoin entering price discovery mode, there are no previous resistance levels to reference. The first notable level is the Fibonacci extension of 1.618, derived from the recent pullback, placing the next significant target around $130,000. Other key targets include dynamic metrics such as the AVIV ratio (the ratio of market price to True Market Mean) and the BTC/GOLD power trendline. It’s important to highlight that bitcoin’s price action continues to follow the regression trend established from the FTX bottom. Typically, trends persist more frequently than they break, reinforcing the adage, "the trend is your friend." Therefore, unless this trend clearly breaks, our assumption will remain that it continues. From a technical perspective, there's still a chance bitcoin could form a lower high here, potentially creating some kind of double-top pattern. However, we view this as a lower probability scenario based on the following observations:... Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer to unlock the rest. Become a paying subscriber of The Bitcoin Layer to get access to this post and other subscriber-only content. Upgrade to paid A subscription gets you: TBL Pros receive weekly 'Mean, Median, Mode' report TBL Pros attend monthly live Q+A sessions TBL Pros can personally request analysis & community discussions   Like Comment Restack   © 2025 Nik Bhatia 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 Unsubscribe