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Mean Median Mode: Risk Shifting

Our bi-weekly quantitative risk report for TBL Pros: May 14th, 2025 Edition

Nik Bhatia, Augustine Carrasco, and Johan Bergman

May 14

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Dear Readers,

This week, we analyze the latest bull run in risk assets and what has driven it—that is, besides Trump. Welcome back to another edition of Mean Median Mode—a quantitative risk report summarizing bitcoin price analysis and global macro narratives to position investors and bitcoin watchers with the data that matters. So, without further ado, here’s our latest risk report.

Performance Overview
Bitcoin: Technical Analysis
TBL Liquidity
Bitcoin: Correlation Analysis
Bitcoin On-Chain Analytics
US Rates Analysis
Fed Watch
Money Market Analysis
US Economy Analysis

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Performance Overview

Bitcoin is up 66% trailing 12 months, while gold posts gains of 38% and stocks 13%. Treasuries in the belly of the curve are flat on a total return basis looking back one year.

Bitcoin: Technical Analysis

High Time Frame

On a high time frame, the chart looks promising. Bitcoin successfully regained the area between $92,000 and $105,000. If bears were genuinely in control, it would have made sense for them to prevent the price from reclaiming this range.
Our base case scenario is that bitcoin will reach new all-time highs this year. With bitcoin entering price discovery mode, there are no previous resistance levels to reference. The first notable level is the Fibonacci extension of 1.618, derived from the recent pullback, placing the next significant target around $130,000. Other key targets include dynamic metrics such as the AVIV ratio (the ratio of market price to True Market Mean) and the BTC/GOLD power trendline.

It’s important to highlight that bitcoin’s price action continues to follow the regression trend established from the FTX bottom. Typically, trends persist more frequently than they break, reinforcing the adage, "the trend is your friend." Therefore, unless this trend clearly breaks, our assumption will remain that it continues.
From a technical perspective, there's still a chance bitcoin could form a lower high here, potentially creating some kind of double-top pattern. However, we view this as a lower probability scenario based on the following observations:...

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