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Bitcoin’s On-Chain Bounce Isn’t Enough

Bitcoin On-Chain Activity Report, June 2025

Ecoinometrics

Jun 18

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Bitcoin’s on-chain activity has historically been a reliable tool for gauging where we are in the market cycle.

Think of it as a temperature check on investor engagement. When activity cools, it often signals a transition toward a bear market. When it heats up, it typically marks the start of a real bullish phase.

Last month, on-chain activity showed signs that Bitcoin had broken out of its bearish trend.

But since then, the signal hasn’t strengthened. There’s no clear follow-through.

Let’s dig into what that means and why it matters now.

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Bitcoin’s On-Chain Bounce Isn’t Enough

The Takeaway

Bitcoin’s on-chain activity broke out of its bearish trend last month, but the bounce lacks follow-through across shorter timeframes. That makes the signal ambiguous.

Unlike past cycles, where on-chain trends followed a clean pattern, this time the data shows a mid-cycle rebound, likely driven by ETF flows tied to broader market sentiment...