Institutions Are Betting on Bitcoin, Not EthereumAlso Bitcoin and Gold, The Hard Assets Institutions Keep Buying & Unemployment Stays Low, and the Fed Stays Put
Welcome to Ecoinometrics' Friday edition. Each week, we analyze the three most critical market signals impacting Bitcoin and macro assets, delivering institutional-grade insights through data-driven charts and analysis. Today we'll cover:
Together, these three charts tell a clear story. Bitcoin continues to dominate flows, gold is quietly outperforming, and the macro backdrop remains steady. In this environment, institutional capital is leaning into hard assets and waiting patiently for the Fed to move. In case you missed it, here are the other topics we covered this week:
Essential Decision-Making Tools Bitcoin Market Monitor - Key Drivers in Five Charts:
Bitcoin Market Forecast - Probability Scenarios & Risk Metrics:
Get these professional-grade insights delivered to your inbox: Institutions Are Betting on Bitcoin, Not EthereumUnlike past Bitcoin bull markets, this cycle hasn’t produced an altcoin season. The reason is simple: the money isn’t rotating like it used to. Historically, flows would start with Bitcoin, then spill over into Ethereum, and eventually reach the broader crypto market. But this time, capital is concentrating in Bitcoin. Everyone else is just getting the leftovers. You could already tell by comparing Bitcoin and Ethereum’s performance over the past two years. But if you look at where the money is actually going, the gap is even more striking. The chart below shows cumulative net ETF flows in USD for Bitcoin and Ethereum, starting from the launch of the Ethereum ETFs in July 2024. The contrast is hard to ignore. Ethereum ETF flows have been anemic compared to Bitcoin. Now that’s not entirely unexpected, Ethereum’s market cap is about one-seventh the size of Bitcoin’s. But even adjusting for that, the pace and consistency of Ethereum flows are weak. Every time Bitcoin inflows surge, Ethereum either lags behind or barely reacts. In a market increasingly driven by institutional capital, that disconnect matters. So the problem isn’t a lack of instruments for investors to pour money into Ethereum. Institutions now have easy access to Ethereum ETFs. The problem is narrative. Bitcoin has one: digital gold. Ethereum doesn’t. You could argue that Ethereum’s complexity makes it harder to market to institutions. It’s a technology platform, not a simple macro trade. That’s the ambiguity that limits its adoption in portfolio models built around clear asset classifications. And that’s why, even as Bitcoin ETF flows point to a high likelihood of a new all-time high, Ethereum remains stuck.
Bitcoin and Gold: The Hard Assets Institutions Keep BuyingIt feels like I’ve been writing the same headline every month for the past two years. At the beginning of each month, we look at Bitcoin’s performance relative to other assets (total returns, monthly returns, risk-adjusted returns, and correlations). And the same observation keeps coming up: over a 12-month horizon, Bitcoin and gold consistently top the list. As of the end of June, nothing has changed. On a 12-month rolling basis, Bitcoin and gold are still leading in both absolute and risk-adjusted returns. For Bitcoin, that’s not surprising. A 12-month return of 60–70% is good, but actually below its long-term average over the past decade. Gold, though, is doing something unusual. It’s posting above-average 12-month returns, and doing so with remarkable consistency. That kind of performance is rare. Part of this is driven by demand from central banks outside the U.S., but not only. There’s a broader shift toward hard assets, and both gold and Bitcoin are benefiting. It’s not hard to see why. The U.S. isn’t showing any serious intent to deal with its ballooning debt. For investors thinking about long-term fiat debasement, hard assets are a natural hedge. Yes, the Fed is keeping rates historically high. But the risk of slipping into a regime of fiscal dominance is rising by the day. And long-term investors are positioning early. If you zoom out, what’s happening here is a shift in macro hedging. Instead of rotating into defensive equities or bonds, institutions are allocating to hard monetary assets (Bitcoin and gold) because they’re liquid and not someone else’s liability.
Unemployment Stays Low and the Fed Stays PutSpeaking of the Federal Reserve, this week’s labor market data gives them no reason to change course. The unemployment rate came in at 4.1%. It’s been in the low 4% range for more than a year now. That’s historically low. And more importantly, it’s stable. In short, the U.S. economy is doing fine. The labor market is solid. But inflation is still a concern. Put that all together, and there’s no case for the Fed to rush rate cuts. So the outlook remains the same: no urgency, no surprises. The Fed stays the course. That’s actually good news for Bitcoin. In a risk-on environment, what markets want most is stability. As long as the Fed doesn’t rock the boat, risk assets are willing to wait. In that context, no surprise is a green light. This isn’t a setup for explosive upside, but it’s the kind of steady macro backdrop that allows long-duration trades like Bitcoin to build strength quietly. Volatility is down, positioning is stable, and forward guidance is clear.
That's it for today. Thanks for reading. Cheers, Nick P.S. Every week, our team conducts extensive research analyzing market data, tracking emerging trends, and creating professional-grade charts and analysis. Our mission: Deliver actionable macro and Bitcoin insights that help institutional investors and financial advisors make better-informed decisions. Ready for institutional-grade research that puts you ahead of the market? Click below to access our premium insights. You're currently a free subscriber to Ecoinometrics. For the full experience, upgrade your subscription.
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Friday, July 4, 2025
Institutions Are Betting on Bitcoin, Not Ethereum
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