Dear Readers, It’s Thinking Time! This week we cover One Big Beautiful Bill and what it all means for the country. The Senate passed Trump’s megabill on Tuesday after an all-night session and an appearance from Vice President JD Vance to cast the tie-breaking vote. The bill will now go back to the House, with any changes requiring another Senate vote, as it races to meet Trump’s self-imposed July 4 deadline. TBL Thinks is our way to summarize the most important paywalled, longer reads relevant to global macroeconomics, helping you cut through the noise. With that in mind, please enjoy.
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The Financial Freedom Report is a weekly newsletter from the Human Rights Foundation (HRF) that tracks how authoritarian regimes weaponize money to control their populations and suppress dissent. It also spotlights how freedom technologies like Bitcoin are helping everyday people reclaim their financial independence and freedom. A one-of-a-kind newsletter connecting the dots between financial repression, geopolitics, and emerging tech. Smart macro analysts don’t just watch the Fed. They watch the world.
Blockstream Jade Plus is the easiest, most secure way to protect your Bitcoin—perfect for beginners and pros alike. With a sleek design, simple setup, and step-by-step instructions, you'll be securing your Bitcoin in minutes. Seamlessly pair with the Blockstream app on mobile or desktop for smooth onboarding. As your stack grows, Jade Plus grows with you—unlock features like the air-gapped JadeLink Storage Device or QR Mode for cable-free transactions using the built-in camera. Want more security? Jade Plus supports multisig wallets with apps like Blockstream, Electrum, Sparrow, and Specter. Protect your Bitcoin, sleep better, stack harder. Use code: TBL for 10% off. “A great bill. It has something for everyone.” - President TrumpThe process of money creation goes through many steps and relies on multiple layers in the hierarchy of financial institutions. One of the key components of this process is the fiscal arm of the United States government, which in many ways underpins the existence of the US dollar as the denomination of global banking. At The Bitcoin Layer, we measure financial markets and the conditions guiding them by analyzing liquidity, or the grounds for credit creation. Credit creation doesn't always directly result in money, such as deposits (M2) or base money (Fed liabilities). For example, when the US government borrows and spends as it will continue to do for as far as the eye can see, the resulting credit creation (issuance of Treasuries) takes time to monetize. But monetize it eventually does, causing prices to rise. Prices don't fall, at least on the aggregate, because of this condition. The public, not just in the United States but across the world, is simply used to this dynamic and doesn't foresee situations in which prices are allowed to fall. President Trump said it himself: Now is not the right time to get too aggressive on cuts.
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Tuesday, July 1, 2025
TBL Thinks: Big Beautiful Breakdown
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