Also Is Ethereum Finally Having Its Breakout Moment & Worrying Trend in Core Inflation Metrics

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	Forwarded this email? Subscribe here for more A Return of Bitcoin ETF Inflows Makes a Higher Trading Range Possible Also Is Ethereum Finally Having Its Breakout Moment & Worrying Trend in Core Inflation Metrics Ecoinometrics Aug 15   READ IN APP   Welcome to Ecoinometrics' Friday edition. Each week, we analyze the three most critical market signals impacting Bitcoin and macro assets, delivering institutional-grade insights through data-driven charts and analysis. Today we'll cover: A Return of Bitcoin ETF Inflows Makes a Higher Trading Range Possible Is Ethereum Finally Having Its Breakout Moment? Worrying Trend in Core Inflation Metrics Today’s signals point to a market at an inflection point. Bitcoin’s short-term outlook has strengthened on renewed ETF inflows and supportive risk sentiment. Ethereum is showing signs it may finally narrow its performance gap with BTC as its own ETFs start to gain traction. At the same time, sticky core inflation keeps the Fed’s policy path uncertain. That’s a reminder that macro conditions can quickly shift the risk-on environment that crypto is enjoying right now. In case you missed it, here are the other topics we covered this week: Ethereum’s ETF Flows: Strong Signal, Weaker Predictive Power Ecoinometrics · Aug 11 Read full story Public Companies Are Outpacing ETFs in Bitcoin Holdings But Don’t Expect Price Signals Ecoinometrics · Aug 13 Read full story Essential Decision-Making Tools Bitcoin Market Monitor - Key Drivers in Five Charts: Bitcoin Market Monitor Ecoinometrics · November 18, 2024 Read full story Bitcoin Market Forecast - Probability Scenarios & Risk Metrics: Bitcoin Market Forecast Ecoinometrics · December 6, 2024 Read full story Get these professional-grade insights delivered to your inbox: Upgrade to paid A Return of Bitcoin ETF Inflows Makes a Higher Trading Range Possible Bitcoin’s latest breakout attempt is backed by a return of inflows into the ETFs. We reran our simulations with this new data, and the effect is clear: the expected price range for the next 30 days has moved higher. The model now points to a range of $111K to $131K, with an expected value of $121K. That’s not far from where we are today, but it’s roughly $10K higher than the projection we had just two weeks ago. The shift reflects the combination of renewed ETF demand and stronger market sentiment. Right now, three forces are working in Bitcoin’s favor: Moderate ETF inflows are back. The Nasdaq 100 is making new highs. Risk-on sentiment is building as traders anticipate Fed rate cuts later this year. The alignment of these factors supports the higher target range in our ETF flow model. For short-term tactical positioning, this remains one of our most reliable tools. Public company Bitcoin purchases, by contrast, are more relevant to long-term trends, a topic we analyzed in Wednesday’s issue. ETF inflows have pushed our 30-day Bitcoin price projection to $111K–$131K, roughly $10K above the range from two weeks ago. The model’s $121K midpoint reflects both renewed ETF demand and supportive macro conditions. Is Ethereum Finally Having Its Breakout Moment? Since the bottom of the bear market in late 2022, Bitcoin has surged nearly 600%, setting multiple new all-time highs. Ethereum, in contrast, is up just over 300% in the same period, half of BTC’s gain, and has spent most of the last two years lagging behind. That gap could start to close. The Ethereum ETFs, launched a year ago, are now attracting inflows that resemble the early stages of Bitcoin’s ETF-driven rally in 2024. For Bitcoin, sustained ETF buying proved to be a powerful price driver, fuelling successive breakouts. For Ethereum, ETF flows haven’t been as reliable a predictor of near-term returns. Still, they work as a useful gauge of sentiment, showing when institutional and large-scale investors are willing to put fresh capital to work. If this momentum holds, Ethereum could be positioned for making new highs. The key to watch over the next few months is whether inflows can maintain or accelerate. A consistent pattern would suggest the broader market is ready to treat ETH less as a laggard and more as a high-beta play alongside Bitcoin. Ethereum is up just over 300% from the bear market bottom, compared to nearly 600% for Bitcoin. Recent ETF inflows show a pattern similar to BTC’s in 2024, when Bitcoin went on to post successive all-time highs. While less predictive for ETH, sustained inflows could be the spark for new highs. Worrying Trend in Core Inflation Metrics The Federal Reserve has two main mandates: Keep inflation running at a moderate pace. Keep the labor market in the best shape possible. Right now, those goals are pulling in opposite directions. On the labor side, continued unemployment claims have been trending higher in recent weeks. That’s a change after a year of stability and could be read as an early warning sign, pushing the Fed toward rate cuts. On the inflation side, the past two months have shown a more troubling picture. Core services CPI, covering much of the U.S. economy, has ticked higher year-on-year for the second month in a row. This isn’t about tariffs; it’s the kind of inflation driven by wages and long-term service demand, which is much harder to bring down. The contradiction is clear: Inflation argues against cutting rates or at least against accelerating cuts. The labor market argues for easing. In reality, inflation isn’t surging, it’s more likely stuck on a plateau. And the labor market, while showing some cracks, is still strong by historical standards. That’s why the Fed’s decision is likely to be as much political as it is data-driven. Our view: if the Fed sticks to its current guidance of two 25bps cuts this year, Bitcoin should be fine. Anything more would be a bonus. A more hawkish stance would be a massive headwind for BTC. Core services CPI inflation has risen for two straight months, reaching 3.7% year-on-year. That stickiness, combined with a still-strong labor market, weakens the case for accelerating rate cuts. That's it for today. Thanks for reading. Cheers, Nick P.S. Every week, our team conducts extensive research analyzing market data, tracking emerging trends, and creating professional-grade charts and analysis. Our mission: Deliver actionable macro and Bitcoin insights that help institutional investors and financial advisors make better-informed decisions. Ready for institutional-grade research that puts you ahead of the market? Click below to access our premium insights. Upgrade to paid You're currently a free subscriber to Ecoinometrics. For the full experience, upgrade your subscription. Upgrade to paid   Like Comment Restack   © 2025 Ecoinometrics 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 Unsubscribe