Also Bitcoin ETFs Consolidate Among the Top 100 & The Fed Aligns With Market Expectations

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	Forwarded this email? Subscribe here for more Bitcoin ETF Inflows Push the Forecast Higher Also Bitcoin ETFs Consolidate Among the Top 100 & The Fed Aligns With Market Expectations Ecoinometrics Sep 19   READ IN APP   Welcome to Ecoinometrics' Friday edition. Each week, we analyze the three most critical market signals impacting Bitcoin and macro assets, delivering institutional-grade insights through data-driven charts and analysis. Today we'll cover: Bitcoin ETF Inflows Push the Forecast Higher Bitcoin ETFs Consolidate Among the Top 100 The Fed Aligns With Market Expectations Together, these signals show Bitcoin’s position continues to strengthen: ETF inflows lift its outlook, institutional adoption puts it alongside gold, and the Fed sets a supportive backdrop. In case you missed it, here are the other topics we covered this week: Bitcoin Is Bullishly Positioned Ahead of the FOMC Ecoinometrics · Sep 15 Read full story Bitcoin’s On-Chain Activity Points to Growth, Fed Meeting Holds the Key Ecoinometrics · Sep 17 Read full story Bitcoin Market Monitor - your daily read on Bitcoin’s cycle, from macro to flows: Bitcoin Market Monitor Ecoinometrics · November 18, 2024 Read full story Get these professional-grade insights delivered to your inbox: Upgrade to paid Bitcoin ETF Inflows Push the Forecast Higher Over the past month we’ve gone from hesitation, to cautious optimism, and finally to a positive outcome after the FOMC meeting. That’s about as good as it gets for Bitcoin at this stage, considering the Fed still has to manage sticky inflation. We’ll get back to that later in the newsletter, but for now the key driver is ETF flows. In the run-up to the meeting, inflows had already returned and turned consistent. That shift gave Bitcoin’s price an early push higher. Now, with confirmation of one rate cut, two more projected this year, and a downward revision in next year’s rate path, the odds favour ETF inflows continuing. That’s exactly what our ETF flow-based model shows. The baseline forecast points to ~$126K in 30 days, but what really matters is the orange band, the range where Bitcoin is most likely to trade. At the moment, that range is rising, covering roughly $115K to $135K. The important point is not the single forecast number but the upward skew of probabilities. Sustained inflows tilt the whole distribution higher, giving the bullish case more weight even if volatility adds noise. That would put the market on a steady path toward new highs. But we’ll keep updating this trajectory in the Bitcoin Market Monitor as ETF flows evolve. Our ETF flow model shows Bitcoin’s expected price range rising into $115K–$135K, with a baseline projection of $126K in 30 days. Sustained inflows remain the critical driver. Bitcoin ETFs Consolidate Among the Top 100 In the contest between Bitcoin and gold ETFs, here’s where things stand today: Gold: 2 ETFs in the global top 100 by AUM, totalling $167B. Bitcoin: 2 ETFs in the global top 100 by AUM, totalling $110B. Gold is still ahead, but considering its ETFs had a 20-year head start, Bitcoin has caught up remarkably fast. The presence of $110B in institutional money through ETFs shows how much the market has matured. This is no longer a fringe asset class. The structural shift is clear: ETF flows now matter for Bitcoin’s price action in the same way that fund flows matter for equities. That means flows are tied to broader risk sentiment, which reinforces Bitcoin’s correlation with U.S. equity indices like the Nasdaq. It also helps explain why Bitcoin’s volatility has steadily declined over the last two years, now often lower than that of stocks such as Nvidia. The open question is how much further this growth can go. If investors continue to treat Bitcoin as a hard asset and hedge against fiat debasement, then its ETF market could eventually rival, or even exceed, that of gold. We’ll be tracking this evolution closely as Bitcoin and gold increasingly compete for the same institutional role. Two Bitcoin ETFs now rank in the global top 100, with $110B AUM, closing the gap with gold’s $167B. This marks a structural shift as Bitcoin enters the same league as long-established hard-asset ETFs. The Fed Aligns With Market Expectations The market wanted it, and the Fed delivered. On Monday we noted the big mismatch between the market’s expectations for rates and the Fed’s previous dot plot. That gap has now narrowed because the Fed gave ground. Not only did we get one rate cut, but the updated dot plot signals two more by year-end. That’s exactly what markets had priced in. For 2026 and beyond, the Fed also revised projections lower. The 2026 year-end median is now 3.375%, still slightly above market pricing, but directionally aligned. The bigger signal here is that the Fed is no longer singularly focused on inflation. It is now openly balancing sticky inflation against a softening labor market and political pressure. For Bitcoin, this is the setup we had flagged as positive: more cuts and no hawkish surprises. That’s the kind of policy stance that supports risk-on sentiment and eases liquidity conditions. With financial conditions still improving, the Nasdaq hitting new highs, and on-chain activity showing bullish momentum, all that’s missing is confirmation in ETF flows. If those flows strengthen, Bitcoin has the backdrop it needs to reach new highs. The Fed’s latest dot plot shows one cut delivered and two more expected by year-end, with 2025–2026 projections revised lower. This brings policy closer to market expectations, supporting risk-on sentiment and easing conditions for Bitcoin. That's it for today. Thanks for reading. Cheers, Nick P.S. Every week, our team conducts extensive research analyzing market data, tracking emerging trends, and creating professional-grade charts and analysis. Our mission: Deliver actionable macro and Bitcoin insights that help institutional investors and financial advisors make better-informed decisions. Ready for institutional-grade research that puts you ahead of the market? Click below to access our premium insights. Upgrade to paid You're currently a free subscriber to Ecoinometrics. For the full experience, upgrade your subscription. Upgrade to paid   Like Comment Restack   © 2025 Ecoinometrics 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 Unsubscribe