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Getting Closer to Our Liquidity Target: TBL Weekly #157

Augustine Carrasco and Nik Bhatia

Sep 19

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Dear Readers,

For over a year now, the TBL team has been working on our proprietary TBL Liquidity Index, from the construction of the raw metric to its TBL Liquidity Cycle. All in an effort to build a model that guides our TBL Pros and institutional clients through market cycles.

What’s amazing about this whole process is the fact that we are finally starting to show all of our work to you guys in a material manner (i.e., signals). It’s almost as though we’ve been loading up a slingshot for over a year, and now that we are finally shooting, we are getting some amazing feedback from TBL Pros and friends.

We can’t thank you enough for being patient with us throughout this whole process.

But enough with the sentimentals; let’s get to the meat and potatoes—the latest on TBL Liquidity.

This extended $75k–$110k range has caused some to wonder if the bull run is exhausted. But what if the on-chain evidence tells a totally different story? Join James Check (Checkmate of Checkonchain) and Connor Dolan for a data-driven discussion on what a maturing bitcoin market means for the road ahead. James will break down:

Institutions reshaping the cycle: ETF flows and institutional allocator demand setting higher floors
Chopsolidation: why time-pain in the $75k–$110k range signals resilience, not exhaustion
Conviction on display: heavy distributions absorbed while long-term holders remain in control

On-chain metrics show bitcoin has crossed the Rubicon—from a nascent store of value into a true institutional-grade asset class. This session will help you understand what that means for this bull market and beyond—and how you might position yourself appropriately.

Tuesday, September 30th at 3PM CT — online, free to attend.

We are also happy to announce our newest sponsor this month: Arch Lending!

At TBL, we help you decode Bitcoin’s macro trends and give clear market signals—holding Bitcoin is just the beginning. Arch lets you borrow against your Bitcoin—unlock cash without selling:

Instantly access a Bitcoin-backed line of credit
Borrow from just $5k for up to 2 years
No rehypothecation. Ever.
Insured custody at Anchorage Digital

Stay long, stay liquid.

Use code “Nik” for 0.5% off interest rate for 2 years.

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US Dollar

For those of you new to TBL, our most recent addition to the TBL Liquidity recipe is the US dollar, using the DXY index. The logic behind this addition lies in the dollar’s ubiquity for lending across the world. When the dollar becomes more expensive in relation to other currencies, lending (and, therefore, liquidity) decreases—and vice versa.

This week, during one of our morning calls here at TBL, Nik discussed his current outlook for the US dollar. Referencing a 14-year trend line (chart below), here are his thoughts on the current market showing support at this 97-level:...

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