Treasury Companies Can Optimize Their Bitcoin StrategyBitcoin Treasuries Hit 1M BTC Milestone, But Overpaying at Tops Costs Billions. Time for MVRV-Smart Accumulation?
Bitcoin treasury companies have become one of the most important demand drivers in this cycle. Collectively, 86 publicly traded firms now hold more than 1 million BTC on their balance sheets. What began with (Micro)Strategy in 2020 has since spread across the corporate landscape, with new entrants joining seemingly every week. But a closer look at their purchase history reveals a surprising insight that many of these companies could be holding considerably more Bitcoin today if they had followed a simple, rules-based strategy for accumulation. The Current State Of Treasury Holdings(Micro)Strategy remains the clear leader among corporate Bitcoin holders, with almost 640,000 BTC. Across all Top Public Bitcoin Treasury Companies, over 1 million BTC is now effectively locked away, a dynamic that permanently reduces liquid supply and strengthens Bitcoin’s monetary premium (assuming, of course, they never sell!) While this has been a huge net positive for Bitcoin’s supply-demand economics, the data shows that a large share of these purchases occurred during overheated market conditions, particularly at local peaks.
Figure 1: Public treasury companies now hold more than 1 million BTC. Buying The TopTake (Micro)Strategy’s activity as an example. The company made some of its heaviest allocations during late 2024, as Bitcoin surged above $70,000 following ETF approvals. This was far from unique, as the broader treasury sector showed the same pattern of front-loading purchases during euphoric phases.
Figure 2: Many treasury purchases cluster around cycle peaks rather than troughs. While understandable (capital is easiest to raise when prices are rising and sentiment is high), the result is that treasury companies are often overpaying. In fact, backtesting shows that waiting for even modest pullbacks could have saved firms 10–30% on average compared to their actual entry prices. Of course, nobody has a crystal ball to predict price action, but at the very least, not buying immediately after triple-digit percentage gains in a few weeks would probably help! A Simple Data-Driven FixOne straightforward adjustment could have made a massive difference: using the MVRV Ratio as a filter. This approach is not complex. It doesn’t attempt to time exact bottoms, nor does it rely on subjective judgment. Instead, it uses a rolling MVRV percentile threshold to avoid allocating during the most overheated phases of bull markets.
Figure 3: Using MVRV-based signals, BTC accumulation can be effectively timed. By avoiding purchases when the MVRV ratio was in its top 20% of historical readings (a proxy for overvaluation) and simply deploying that capital during cooler periods, (Micro)Strategy alone would be holding almost 685,000 BTC today, nearly 50,000 BTC more than it currently owns. At current prices, that’s over $5 billion in additional Bitcoin. To put that in perspective, the “missed” Bitcoin is roughly equivalent to the combined lifetime holdings of the other Active Bitcoin Treasury Companies (except Marathon Digital).
Figure 4: A simple MVRV-based filter would have yielded ~50,000 more BTC for (Micro)Strategy. Similar frameworks have been tested on other markets such as altcoins, equities, and even the S&P 500, and they consistently outperform blind dollar-cost averaging. Strategic dollar-cost averaging beats emotional dollar-cost averaging pretty much regardless of market conditions. Implications For Treasuries And IndividualsFor treasury companies, implementing this model could mean billions in extra value over time. For individual investors, the same principle applies of simply avoiding chasing rallies during euphoric phases, and instead let the market come to you.
Figure 5: Adopting a more strategic DCA approach, by avoiding the most over-valued dates, would have driven higher returns for MSTR and other investors. Of course, we must acknowledge the nuances. Corporations face constraints in raising capital, executing large block trades without slippage, and managing shareholder expectations. But even within those limits, a simple data-driven filter could materially improve outcomes. ConclusionBitcoin treasury companies have been an enormous net positive for the network. Their combined 1 million BTC holdings reduce supply, increase the money multiplier effect, and highlight the growing institutional adoption of Bitcoin. But the data shows that most of them could almost certainly be doing better. A simple strategy of avoiding purchases during overheated conditions would have netted Strategy alone an extra 50,000 BTC, worth more than $5 billion today. For both corporations and individuals, the message is the same: discipline outperforms FOMO. Treasury accumulation has reshaped Bitcoin’s supply landscape, but the next evolution may be smarter accumulation strategies that maximize returns and limit the markets downside volatility without increasing risk. For a more in-depth look into this topic, watch our most recent YouTube video here: This Simple Bitcoin Strategy Would Have Made Them Billions  Matt Crosby Lead Analyst - Bitcoin Magazine Pro Bitcoin Magazine Pro
For more detailed Bitcoin analysis and to access advanced features like live charts, personalized indicator alerts, and in-depth industry reports, check out Bitcoin Magazine Pro. Make Smarter Decisions About Bitcoin. Join millions of investors who get clarity about Bitcoin using data analytics you can't get anywhere else. We don't just provide data for data's sake, we provide the metrics and tools that really matter. So you get to supercharge your insights, not your workload. Take the next step in your Bitcoin investing journey:
Invest wisely, stay informed, and let data drive your decisions. Thank you for reading, and here’s to your future success in the Bitcoin market! Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions. We sincerely appreciate your support and hope you found this content valuable. Please leave a like and let us know your thoughts in the comments section; we always welcome feedback from our audience!
|
Friday, September 26, 2025
Treasury Companies Can Optimize Their Bitcoin Strategy
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Popular Posts
-
Welcome back to the Citizen Daily Brief. Put your stablecoins to work. This is the future of finance, after all. ...
-
Plus $200 off! ...
-
Aave and Morpho are the top two lending giants. And they're battling for dominance on Base. Here's what...
-
Hey, I wanted to remind you that The DeFi Edge Pro closes in a few hours . This is the final enrollment window for a while, ...
-
gm Bankless Nation, another week, another data leak. This time though, it was the largest in history, reinforcing the need for pri...
No comments:
Post a Comment