Gold Outpacing BitcoinAlso MicroStrategy Towers Over Public Company Bitcoin Holdings & Narrative Is the Moat
Welcome to Ecoinometrics’ Friday edition. Each week, we analyze the three most critical market signals impacting Bitcoin and macro assets, delivering institutional-grade insights through data-driven charts and analysis. Today we’ll cover:
Together, these signals highlight how investor behaviour is shaping Bitcoin’s path: capital flows favouring gold show a defensive tilt in the short term, corporate holdings show the outsized role of MicroStrategy, and market dominance underscores Bitcoin’s enduring narrative as digital hard money. In case you missed it, here are the other topics we covered this week: Bitcoin Market Monitor - Key Drivers in Ten Charts: Get these professional-grade insights delivered to your inbox: Gold Outpacing BitcoinThe market feels like it’s in a short-term phase of asymmetric risk. The FOMC gave investors what they wanted last week and that should be good for Bitcoin. But the announcement was already priced in. Bitcoin showed no upside after the meeting. The Nasdaq and gold briefly made new highs, but that momentum has already faded. Price action may have cooled, but flows are still moving. ETF data shows consistent demand for hard assets. Both Bitcoin and gold have seen positive inflows over the last 30 days, with gold pulling ahead since August. Gold is now close to its strongest surge of inflows this year, on top of what has already been a good year. That suggests investors are leaning defensive, preparing for the possibility of downside in risk assets rather than expecting more upside. The stronger momentum in gold ETF inflows compared to Bitcoin shows investors tilting defensive. Gold retains its role as a classic safe haven, while Bitcoin still trades more like a high-beta asset tied to risk-on sentiment. For allocators, this difference in intensity helps frame tactical positioning. So while Bitcoin’s long-term growth potential remains intact, investors should be ready for short-term turbulence. MicroStrategy Towers Over Public Company Bitcoin HoldingsPublic companies have steadily increased their Bitcoin exposure. Across roughly 200 listed firms with some Bitcoin on their balance sheet, total holdings now add up to about 1 million BTC. But size matters. Only a handful of these companies own more than 10,000 BTC, and together that group controls just above 3% of the total supply. Within that select group, MicroStrategy alone accounts for 62% of the total, more than ten times the second-largest holder. This concentration has been a positive force for Bitcoin so far. These buyers don’t typically follow market sentiment. Most accumulate on a set schedule, closer to a DCA approach than to trading flows. That means they add fuel in bull phases and provide steady support in bear phases. The sheer gap between MicroStrategy and the rest shows that corporate adoption is still fragile. One company is carrying the weight of the narrative, which amplifies both the upside and the risk. MicroStrategy has played this role for five years, and so far it has been a net positive. But if it reduced or stopped its buying, a large chunk of the regular corporate demand for Bitcoin would disappear. Even if you prefer to hold Bitcoin directly rather than the stock, it’s worth keeping an eye on MicroStrategy’s balance sheet just to track that risk. Narrative Is the Moat: Why Bitcoin Still LeadsIn real estate, the saying goes that the three most important things are location, location, location. At Ecoinometrics, we take a data-driven approach to markets. But it’s important to recognize that investors, whether institutional or retail, rationalize their decisions through stories. Narratives shape conviction and long-term positioning. That’s why in crypto the three most important things are narrative, narrative, narrative. And the narrative still belongs to Bitcoin. Even as the crypto market has expanded to nearly $4 trillion, Bitcoin commands about 59% of the total market cap, four times the size of Ethereum at 14%, and roughly seven times the size of all stablecoins combined. This endurance isn’t just about flows or fundamentals. Like gold, Bitcoin benefits from an entrenched story: investors expect it to act as digital hard money. The persistence of Bitcoin’s dominance, even after institutional inflows into Ethereum ETFs, shows that narratives can outweigh incremental fundamentals in shaping long-term positioning. For allocators, that means weighing the durability of a story is just as important as tracking the technical metrics. That’s it for today. Thanks for reading. Cheers, Nick P.S. Every week, our team conducts extensive research analyzing market data, tracking emerging trends, and creating professional-grade charts and analysis. Our mission: Deliver actionable macro and Bitcoin insights that help institutional investors and financial advisors make better-informed decisions. Ready for institutional-grade research that puts you ahead of the market? Click below to access our premium insights. You're currently a free subscriber to Ecoinometrics. For the full experience, upgrade your subscription. |
Friday, September 26, 2025
Gold Outpacing Bitcoin
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