Our bi-weekly quantitative risk report for TBL Pros: November 12th, 2025 Edition

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	Forwarded this email? Subscribe here for more Mean Median Mode: The $100,000 Stalemate Our bi-weekly quantitative risk report for TBL Pros: November 12th, 2025 Edition Augustine Carrasco and Johan Bergman Nov 12 ∙ Preview   READ IN APP   Dear Readers, Welcome back to another edition of Mean Median Mode—a quantitative risk report summarizing bitcoin price analysis and global macro narratives to position investors and bitcoin watchers with the data that matters. So, without further ado, here’s our latest risk report. Table of Contents Bitcoin: Technical Analysis TBL Liquidity Analysis Bitcoin: Correlation Analysis Bitcoin: On-Chain Analytics US Rates Analysis Fed Watch & Money Markets Secure your bitcoin’s future—and your family’s peace of mind. Too many heirs lose access to bitcoin because there’s no clear inheritance plan. We’ll show you how to change that. On Wednesday, Nov 19 at 11:00 AM CT, join Dhruv Bansal (CSO, Unchained), Jeff Vandrew (CFO & CLO, Unchained), and Joshua Preston (CEO, Gannett Trust) for a live fireside chat on how to make your bitcoin legacy secure, simple, and built to last. We’ll cover: Transfer on death beneficiaries: A new Unchained feature for designating who inherits your bitcoin and removes uncertainty for your family. Connections: Our vaults are uniquely built to let you share custody to help your heirs or trusted partners securely recover your bitcoin when it matters most. Estate planning: How Gannett Wealth Advisors’ expert financial guidance integrates with Unchained to protect your keys and your legacy. Bring your questions—this conversation is designed to give you clarity on how to make inheritance seamless with real bitcoin, not IOUs. WHEN: Wednesday, Nov 19 at 11:00 AM CT — online, free to attend. Register Here Blockstream Jade Plus is the easiest, most secure way to protect your Bitcoin—perfect for beginners and pros alike. With a sleek design, simple setup, and step-by-step instructions, you’ll be securing your Bitcoin in minutes. Seamlessly pair with the Blockstream app on mobile or desktop for smooth onboarding. As your stack grows, Jade Plus grows with you—unlock features like the air-gapped JadeLink Storage Device or QR Mode for cable-free transactions using the built-in camera. Want more security? Jade Plus supports multisig wallets with apps like Blockstream, Electrum, Sparrow, and Specter. Protect your Bitcoin, sleep better, stack harder. Use code: TBL for 10% off. Take Control of Your Bitcoin Today Bitcoin: Technical Analysis High Timeframe During our last risk report two weeks ago, bitcoin was trading around $113,000, which at that time was equal to the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis (arrow number 1 on chart below). We wrote: “The previous candle did close above it, but the price could still face rejection here. If we see one full candle form above the STH CB, it would imply that the price is being accepted above that level again because bears would have had three days to sell into that strength but still weren’t able to move the needle.” What happened next is exactly why we said we wanted to see a full candle (three days of trading) above the STH CB, not just a close. The level was rejected with a bearish engulfing candle, a sign that the downtrend would continue. And it did, a few days later, the price dropped from $110,000 to $98,000. There could be a silver lining to all of this. It might be turning out to be a textbook pullback for bitcoin in this epoch. Price went to the level we had identified earlier, hit both market-dividing metrics, and bounced from there, leaving two clear wicks (arrow number 2 on chart below). We will provide more arguments for why a local bottom could be forming in the On-chain Analysis section. Low Timeframe... Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer to unlock the rest. Become a paying subscriber of The Bitcoin Layer to get access to this post and other subscriber-only content. Upgrade to paid A subscription gets you: TBL Pros receive a bi-weekly 'Mean, Median, Mode' report TBL Pros attend monthly live Q+A sessions TBL Pros can personally request analysis & community discussions   Like Comment Restack   © 2025 Nik Bhatia 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 Unsubscribe