Bitcoin ETF Flows Are Stabilizing and Our Model Shows Recovery as the BaselineBitcoin ETFs Report, December 2025After the second-largest sequence of outflows on record, the Bitcoin ETFs finally showed signs of stabilizing last week. That shift matters. A stabilization in flows is the first condition for Bitcoin to recover from a drawdown this deep. Without it, it is unlikely for a sustainable price recovery trend to take hold. In today’s edition, we update our ETF flows model to see whether this stabilization is the start of a real turning point and what our simulations suggest are the most likely scenarios for December. Ecoinometrics delivers professional-grade crypto and macro analysis to help institutional investors and serious traders make data-driven decisions. Our team conducts rigorous quantitative research, developing proprietary metrics and institutional-quality visualizations that cut through the noise to reveal key market dynamics. Each newsletter provides clear, actionable insights backed by data, delivered in a concise format that respects your time - five minutes to absorb, but deep enough to inform your investment strategy. Join over 35,000 professional investors and fund managers: Ready? Let’s dig into the data. Bitcoin ETF Flows Are Stabilizing and Our Model Shows Recovery as the BaselineThe TakeawayBitcoin ETF outflows have finally stabilized after a sharp decline, and this shift matters because, historically, stabilization is quickly followed by a recovery of flows. And that’s what is needed to carry a rally. Our updated flows-to-returns model remains statistically strong, though its slope is drifting as the ETF market matures... Continue reading this post for free in the Substack app |
Wednesday, December 3, 2025
Bitcoin ETF Flows Are Stabilizing and Our Model Shows Recovery as the Baseline
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