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Mean Median Mode: 2026, Here We Come

Our bi-weekly quantitative risk report for TBL Pros: December 3rd, 2025 Edition

Augustine Carrasco, Nik Bhatia, Johan Bergman, and Demian Schatt

Dec 3

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Dear Readers,

Welcome back to another edition of Mean Median Mode—a quantitative risk report summarizing bitcoin price analysis and global macro narratives to position investors and bitcoin watchers with the data that matters. So, without further ado, here’s our latest risk report.

Bitcoin: Technical Analysis
TBL Liquidity Analysis
Bitcoin: Correlation Analysis
Bitcoin: On-Chain Analytics
US Rates Analysis
Fed Watch & Money Markets
US Economy

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Bitcoin: Technical Analysis

High Time Frame

Tuesday’s bitcoin price action screamed confirmation.
For two months, bitcoin has been under pressure. It fell to its long-term trend in a cascading move, painting a grim picture the day after it pierced through the green trendline to the downside:

In hindsight, we might have to adjust our baseline expectation of the slope of a support trendline. I’ll explain my hypothesis on applying the power-law instead of four-year cycles, and why this might be the key to understanding bitcoin’s future price growth...

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