What history says about duration, breakouts, and payoff asymmetry.

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	Forwarded this email? Subscribe here for more How Does Bitcoin’s Tight Range Usually Resolve? What history says about duration, breakouts, and payoff asymmetry. Ecoinometrics Dec 29 ∙ Preview   READ IN APP   Bitcoin has spent the past four weeks trading in an increasingly narrow price range. Volatility has compressed, downside momentum has stalled, and price has gone nowhere. The common interpretation of this type of pattern is straightforward: after a period of compression, Bitcoin tends to break out sharply, often to the upside. In practice, the picture is more nuanced. Tight ranges aren’t super common, their duration is often underestimated, and their resolution is not as directional as many assume. In this issue, we’ll put the current setup into historical context. We’ll look at how long these tight trading ranges typically last, how they have resolved in the past, and what actually matters for investors trying to position for the next move, beyond the price pattern itself. Let’s dig into the data. Ecoinometrics delivers professional-grade crypto and macro analysis to help institutional investors and serious traders make data-driven decisions. Our team conducts rigorous quantitative research, developing proprietary metrics and institutional-quality visualizations that cut through the noise to reveal key market dynamics. Each newsletter provides clear, actionable insights backed by data, delivered in a concise format that respects your time - five minutes to absorb, but deep enough to inform your investment strategy. Join over 35,000 professional investors and fund managers: Upgrade to paid Ready? Let’s dig into the data. How Does Bitcoin’s Tight Range Usually Resolve? The Takeaway Bitcoin is consolidating into a tight range after a drawdown, a pattern that often invites expectations of an imminent upside breakout. History suggests a more restrained interpretation... Continue reading this post for free in the Substack app Claim my free post Or upgrade your subscription. Upgrade to paid   Like Comment Restack   © 2025 Ecoinometrics 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 Unsubscribe