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TBL Liquidity Indicator, Bitcoin, and Balance Sheet Expansion: TBL Weekly #165

Augustine Carrasco

Dec 12

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Dear Readers,

During this week’s FOMC meeting, Jerome Powell covered many things that have been present in our latest market coverage—from the AI & labor relationship to productivity to a K-shaped economy to their ample reserves framework. Heck, he was even asked about the legacy that he wants to leave for his successor (which is looking more and more like Kevin Hasset):

To maintain a similar tone about all that is going on, we will use this weekly to update you on multiple things, such as:

Our TBL Liquidity Indicator
Our take on the Fed’s latest balance sheet expansion announcement
And what all of this means for bitcoin.

So, without further ado, let’s dive in!

Was 2025 just underwhelming, or did bitcoin quietly lay the groundwork for an extended bull run?

On December 17 at 1 PM CST, Conner Brown, James Lavish, and Preston Pysh join
Unchained for a high-signal breakdown of the forces that defined bitcoin this year.

They’ll cover:

How 2025’s macro and liquidity shifts reshaped bitcoin’s market footing
The policy developments in Washington that carried the most weight
What this year’s inflection points reveal about bitcoin’s long-term direction

If you want clarity on what 2025 really meant for bitcoin—and how to think about the road ahead—this is the event.

Wednesday, Dec 17 at 1 PM CST — online, free to attend.

Secure your Bitcoin this holiday. 21% off all Blockstream Jade devices.

Take Control of Your Bitcoin Today

Our videos are on major podcast platforms—take us with you on the go!
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TBL Liquidity Indicator

This past week, our TBL Liquidity indicator adjusted upwards based on incoming data. For those of you who are new, our indicator is two-sided in nature, meaning that it uses past and future data to find local peaks and troughs in short-term liquidity.

Before we keep going with the article, we want to wish everyone some Happy Holidays!

We want to show the world everything we’ve built this year for our TBL Pro members, and give you the chance to get full access at a 40% discount on annual subscriptions through Christmas.

As a TBL Pro member, you’ll get access to:

A Liquidity-Driven Framework That Helps You Gauge Risk-Asset Movements
A Brand-New Live Research Dashboard
Continuous Intelligence Articles

On Behalf of the TBL Team, Happy Holidays!

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If you are currently a TBL Pro member and want to take advantage of this offer, cancel your current subscription and resubscribe to redeem this discount...

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A subscription gets you:

	Exclusive access to the TBL Liquidity Indicator and Live Research Dashboard
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