͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏

Forwarded this email? Subscribe here for more

TBL Liquidity versus Japanese Yields

Is the latest JGB selloff a headwind or a tailwind for liquidity (and thus risk)?

Augustine Carrasco

Jan 22

∙

Preview

READ IN APP

Dear Readers,

One of the benefits of having a working framework is that we can assess all macro situations from a specific perspective, and whether a specific event is constructive or not constructive from that lens. Accordingly, here’s the question we aim to answer today:

Question to answer:

Is the latest JGB selloff a headwind or a tailwind for liquidity (and thus risk)?

The cracks in the foundations of money are becoming harder to ignore. Persistent deficits, rising debt, and central bank behavior are quietly reshaping how investors think about preservation and risk.

On January 28 at 1PM CST, James Lavish joins Unchained for a live conversation on currency debasement, why traditional portfolio assumptions are being tested, and how gold and bitcoin fit into a changing monetary landscape.

The discussion will cover:

Why debasement is structural, not cyclical
How inflation and financial repression challenge familiar portfolios
Why gold tends to move first—and bitcoin often moves further

Wednesday, January 28 at 1PM CST — online, free to attend. Register now and get early access to the report:

❌ DON’T WRITE YOUR SEED ON PAPER 📝

Why? Because securing your generational wealth on paper is risky.

It’s estimated that ~30% of Bitcoin is lost forever. Poor seed phrase security is a big reason why.

This is why we use Stamp Seed, a DIY kit that enables you to hammer your seed words into a durable plate of titanium using professional stamping tools.

Heat-resistant to 3,000ºF, rust-proof, crush-proof, and time-proof
Compact and easy to hide
No loose parts, such as screws or letter tiles

Use code TBL to take 15% off your purchase.

Get your Stamp Seed today!

USTs and JGBs: A Push and Pull Relationship

Of the total foreign ownership of US Treasuries (which amounts to $9.36T - chart below)...

…Japan is the United States’ biggest lender, at $1.2T (or 13% of total foreign ownership) as of November 2025:

So, when Japan’s PM Takaichi calls a snap election in which all parties run on an increased spending agenda—causing Japanese bond vigilantes to act by selling JGBs (chart below)—the place to hide should arguably be US Treasuries, right? What with Japan being the biggest foreign lender and all...

Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer to unlock the rest.

Become a paying subscriber of The Bitcoin Layer to get access to this post and other subscriber-only content.

A subscription gets you:

	Exclusive access to the TBL Liquidity Indicator and Live Research Dashboard
	Actionable levels and price structure analysis for Bitcoin
	Macro and risk insights that guide positioning decisions