Dear Readers, One of our New Year’s resolutions is to hit your inboxes with more research on our Liquidity models. To inaugurate such a resolution, here is a shorter piece on some of our most recent findings from the TBL Liquidity Wave.
As bitcoin’s role in the global financial landscape evolves, understanding its potential impact on your wealth becomes increasingly crucial. Whether we see measured adoption or accelerated hyperbitcoinization, being prepared for various scenarios can make the difference between merely participating and truly optimizing your position. This is why Unchained developed the Bitcoin Calculator – a sophisticated modeling tool that helps you visualize and prepare for multiple bitcoin futures. Beyond traditional retirement planning, it offers deep insight into how different adoption scenarios could transform your wealth trajectory. What sets this tool apart is its integration with the Unchained IRA – the only solution that combines the tax advantages of a retirement account with the security of self-custody. In any future state, maintaining direct control of your keys remains fundamental to your bitcoin strategy. Our videos are on major podcast platforms—take us with you on the go! Keep up with The Bitcoin Layer by following our social media! As many of you know, the TBL Liquidity Wave is our newest addition to our TBL product line, and it arrived from a need to use our Liquidity framework to anchor our future expectations, not simply a concurrent indicator. Something that can help your own expectations for risk assets in the near future from a liquidity-centric perspective. For comparison, our TBL Liquidity Indicator is meant to communicate today’s conditions for bitcoin. This article is part 1 of 2, as there is a lot of data to dissect (especially for bitcoin). Today, we focus solely on the S&P 500. TBL Pros know the TBL Liquidity Wave as follows:
As seen on the chart, our TBL Liquidity Wave leads the YoY change in the S&P 500 by a little over six months. Upon further inspection of the chart, from a user perspective, the relationship is clear, but the signal is tough to derive. In other words, you can see our Liquidity Wave clearly lead and be highly correlated to the S&P 500’s ups and downs, but it is hard to back out a projection from this visual alone. Thus, a higher signal chart is one where you get to see where our TBL Liquidity Wave is expecting the S&P 500 to be each day. Let’s have a look at 2025 first before going into what our wave is forecasting the first half of 2026 to look like for the stock market. 2025Here’s a chart of our TBL Liquidity Wave projections (with a 6-month lead) versus where the stock market actually was at each point in time throughout 2025:
At the start of 2025, our wave was off the mark as tariff uncertainty threw most models out the window. However, notice what a great path liquidity proved to be for the S&P 500 during the latter half of the year—the stock market rarely fell outside of our confidence bands. How it worksTo create this beautiful purple path for stocks to follow, we used rolling and evolving data for each month’s projections. For example:
What we end up with is that forward-looking purple path that the S&P 500 is clearly following. And what’s even better, we get it ahead of time. 2026Remember that these purple paths are created from a liquidity-centric framework, which, of course, minimizes momentary macro risks (as was the case in early 2025 with tariff uncertainty, leading our model to overshoot forecasts in April and May) in the Wave versus the Indicator. Said another way, macro volatility will be pronounced in the TBL Liquidity Index & Indicator, and subdued in the Wave. Looking at the Index for reference, it picked up ‘Liberation Day’ turmoil:
Going back to the Wave’s forecast in 2026, noting the 6-month lead time that our it carries, we have enough data to draw an expected path for stocks up until July 2026, and for the most part, the outlook is fairly bullish, but not as bullish as 2023 and 2024. Have a look at the path yourself:... Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer to unlock the rest.Become a paying subscriber of The Bitcoin Layer to get access to this post and other subscriber-only content. A subscription gets you:
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Friday, January 9, 2026
TBL Liquidity Wave 2026 Forecasts: TBL Weekly #166
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