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	Forwarded this email? Subscribe here for more Chart Pack: Bears in Control, US Economy on Fire Nik Bhatia Feb 3 ∙ Preview   READ IN APP   Dear Readers, As our quantitative team takes takes a few days off to start February, you’re stuck with me. I’ve been reflecting on where we might have fallen short, and where we got it right, on the bitcoin price lately. In our video last night, Johan and I discussed balancing the emotions and technicals of markets, and it brought about a curious aspect of being a bitcoin investor. Despite our own technical support giving way in November 2025 and a TBL Liquidity Indicator “sell” signal, we want to remain bullish. And it’s in large part because we are believers. Believers that independent, non-liability, first-layer money is valuable in this day and age. Those wondering if the metal version of bitcoin recaptured the heart of global investors need not speculate — it has. But that does not mean bitcoin has stopped following its adoption path as a scalable savings technology for the planet. This is where we find ourselves today. While we wait for TBL Liquidity Indicator to turn from “sell” to “buy” and the technical damage has eventually worn off, we go back to a classic research technique — what we know, and what we don’t know. This helps us organize our thoughts. Lastly, on the TBL Liquidity Indicator switching to “sell” and frontrunning the recent down move in bitcoin, we are somewhat satisfied. We do have to triangulate our timing (and messaging) better, no question about it. But the fact that our Indicator had this one right is encouraging for the framework, even though you’ll see just what a challenge bitcoin’s recent price action has been in relation to the stock market and TBL Liquidity. Gold, on the other hand, is not present in any shape or form within the TBL Liquidity framework, and therefore much less punishing when it comes to analyzing where we got it right and wrong. I went through our Master Chart Pack, which is up to 181 charts. Here are the 15 charts we’ll discuss today: Bitcoin 200-day MA and STH Realized Price Bitcoin MVRV z-score Bitcoin volatility TBL Liquidity versus Bitcoin (wow! 👀) U.S. Treasury 5-year yields Corporate bond credit spreads (high signal) European bond yields U.S. loan growth U.S. ISM Manufacturing (stunning) Zillow real estate data Transportation and warehousing employment Chinese yuan versus U.S. dollar Market value of U.S. gold holdings SOFR/IORB Treasury General Account (TGA) The foundations of money are shifting in ways that are easy to feel but harder to name. Persistent deficits, rising debt, and central bank behavior are quietly reshaping how investors think about preservation and risk. In The Debasement Trade, James Lavish explains why currency debasement is structural, why traditional portfolio assumptions are being tested, and why gold tends to move first while bitcoin often moves further as the implications compound. The report covers: Why debasement is not cyclical How inflation and financial repression stress familiar portfolios Why gold signals early—and bitcoin expresses the shift later, with more asymmetry Download Report Here ❌ DON’T WRITE YOUR SEED ON PAPER 📝 Why? Because securing your generational wealth on paper is risky. It’s estimated that ~30% of Bitcoin is lost forever. Poor seed phrase security is a big reason why. This is why we use Stamp Seed, a DIY kit that enables you to hammer your seed words into a durable plate of titanium using professional stamping tools. Heat-resistant to 3,000ºF, rust-proof, crush-proof, and time-proof Compact and easy to hide No loose parts, such as screws or letter tiles Use code TBL to take 15% off your purchase. Get your Stamp Seed today! Bitcoin & global high-signal charts I’ll keep each description brief to make sure you spend a few seconds with each chart and the underlying message. In this first one, we compare bitcoin’s price to some general collection zones or areas of consolidation, the 200-day moving average ($103k) and realized price but on a short-term holder basis (155 days and under since last moved on chain, currently $96k)... Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer to unlock the rest. Become a paying subscriber of The Bitcoin Layer to get access to this post and other subscriber-only content. Upgrade to paid A subscription gets you: Exclusive access to the TBL Liquidity Indicator and Live Research Dashboard Actionable levels and price structure analysis for Bitcoin Macro and risk insights that guide positioning decisions   Like Comment Restack   © 2026 Nik Bhatia 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 Unsubscribe