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Embargo!

Augustine Carrasco and Nik Bhatia

Feb 20

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That title is dedicated to one of our loyal TBL Pros, Brett, as he called it exactly as it went during Trump’s post-decision press conference: embargo, embargo, embargo!

For anyone somehow not yet in the loop, the decision on “whether the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) authorizes the President to impose tariffs” was finally made, and the Supreme Court ruled against Trump’s tariffs. The votes were 6-3, with dissenters (i.e., a Justice voting in favor of upholding tariffs) being Justice Brett Kavanaugh, Justices Clarence Thomas, and Justice Samuel Alito.

Bitcoin forces long-term thinking.
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With a freshly baked decision, we want to wait some time before coming to any type of ‘market’ conclusion. That said, raw thoughts help guide questions and conclusions, so we’ll share those with you today.

Firstly, what was the market’s reaction? During our regular morning meeting, Nik made sure that we were all on the desk, paying close attention to the candles. While looking at US Treasury yields (specifically, 2s and 10s), the dollar, and the stock market, we noticed a rather mild reaction all across the board. Treasuries and the dollar sold off mildly, while the stock market caught some marginal buyers. Two thoughts then followed:

Markets had already priced the decision in
Markets haven’t made a definitive decision

Markets priced it in...

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