Also Strategy’s Buying Spree Continues & A Weak Nasdaq Could Limit Bitcoin’s Recovery

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	Forwarded this email? Subscribe here for more Bitcoin ETFs Are On Track For Their First Positive Month In Months Also Strategy’s Buying Spree Continues & A Weak Nasdaq Could Limit Bitcoin’s Recovery Ecoinometrics Mar 13   READ IN APP   Welcome to Ecoinometrics’ Friday edition. Each week, we analyze the three most critical market signals impacting Bitcoin and macro assets, delivering institutional-grade insights through data-driven charts and analysis. Today we’ll cover: Bitcoin ETFs Are On Track For Their First Positive Month In Months Strategy’s Buying Spree Continues A Weak Nasdaq Could Limit Bitcoin’s Recovery After months of declining demand, the first signs of stabilization are beginning to appear in the Bitcoin market. ETF flows have moved back into positive territory and Strategy continues to add aggressively to its holdings. However, Bitcoin remains tightly linked to the broader risk-asset environment, and the current loss of momentum in U.S. equities could still complicate the recovery. Let’s look at the data. In case you missed it, here are the other topics we covered this week: Bitcoin Demand May Finally Be Bottoming Ecoinometrics · Mar 9 Read full story Strategy Still Has The Firepower To Buy Bitcoin Ecoinometrics · Mar 11 Read full story Get these professional-grade insights delivered to your inbox: Upgrade to paid Bitcoin ETFs Are On Track For Their First Positive Month In Months Last week we reported that Bitcoin ETF flows had finally pushed back into positive territory after months of persistent outflows. The good news is that this trend is still holding. Unlike the brief breakout we saw last month, which quickly faded, this time the inflows have shown a bit more staying power. On the chart below we highlight the daily ETF flows recorded since the beginning of the month and place them within the full distribution of flows observed since the launch of the Bitcoin ETFs. The pattern is fairly clear. While not every day has been positive, inflows have been frequent enough, and large enough, that net flows for the month are already around +15K BTC. If this holds through the rest of March, it would mark the first positive month for Bitcoin ETF flows after four consecutive months of net outflows. That would be an important shift. ETF flows have been the main marginal driver of Bitcoin demand over the past two years, so a sustained move back into inflows territory would suggest that the demand picture is stabilizing. In fact, this type of flow pattern maps closely to the bullish scenario in our Bitcoin ETF flow simulations, which points to Bitcoin stabilizing in the $70K+ range by the end of the month. That said, confirmation is still needed. Our simulations show that ETF flows in March could make temporary moves into positive territory before slipping back into outflows later in the month. But if inflows continue at roughly the current pace, Bitcoin would likely have the demand base it needs to form a durable bottom and begin rebuilding upward momentum. Distribution of daily Bitcoin ETF flows since launch. Each dot represents the net flow of Bitcoin into ETFs on a given day. The highlighted points show the flows recorded since the beginning of the month, which have been consistently positive enough to push net monthly flows to roughly +15K BTC. Strategy’s Buying Spree Continues Another encouraging signal for Bitcoin is that corporate accumulation continues. Which in practice means Strategy is buying. At this point the company has become the dominant corporate buyer of Bitcoin with no contender. While a few other firms hold Bitcoin on their balance sheet, Strategy is really the only one accumulating at a scale large enough to move the needle for the market. Thanks to a range of financing tools the company has developed recently (we explored that in more detail here), Strategy has been able to keep raising capital and deploying it into Bitcoin even during the recent market drawdown. In fact, the pace of accumulation has accelerated noticeably. You can see it clearly on the chart below. The slope of Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings becomes much steeper since the bear market, showing that the company is purchasing Bitcoin faster than before October. This creates an interesting dynamic for the market right now. Bitcoin effectively has two major sources of demand supporting it: ETF inflows, which appear to be stabilizing after several months of outflows. Strategy’s continued accumulation, which in some periods rivals the net flows going through the ETFs. Taken together, these two forces create a supportive backdrop for Bitcoin. But as with ETF flows, the key question is persistence. If both sources of demand remain active for several weeks, they could provide the foundation for a more durable recovery in Bitcoin’s price. Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings have grown a lot since the company began its accumulation strategy, but the pace of purchases has accelerated sharply in the bear market contrary to expectations. This makes Strategy one of the largest and most consistent sources of structural demand for Bitcoin today. A Weak Nasdaq Could Limit Bitcoin’s Recovery So far we have looked at two forces that are currently supporting Bitcoin: the stabilization of ETF flows and the continued accumulation from Strategy. But there is another factor we need to keep in mind before getting too optimistic. Bitcoin still trades as part of the broader risk-on complex. In other words, its price dynamics remain closely tied to what happens in other risk assets, especially U.S. equities. This relationship becomes obvious when you compare Bitcoin with the Nasdaq 100. Periods when the Nasdaq loses momentum tend to coincide with weaker conditions across the entire risk-asset space. That is why the current position of the Nasdaq is worth watching closely. As the chart below shows, the index has lost upward momentum and is now approaching its 200-day moving average, a level that often acts as a dividing line between positive and negative market momentum. From here two paths are possible. If the Nasdaq stabilizes and rebounds from this level, that would likely reinforce the demand stabilization we are currently seeing in Bitcoin. But if the Nasdaq breaks below its 200-day moving average, the market could shift from a simple pause to a more negative momentum regime. In that case, the fragile recovery we are seeing in Bitcoin demand could easily stall again. In other words, while the demand picture for Bitcoin has improved, it is still operating within a broader macro environment that remains uncertain. Bitcoin often trades in tandem with the broader risk-asset environment. As the Nasdaq approaches its 200-day moving average, the market is nearing a key momentum threshold. A rebound in equities would likely support Bitcoin’s stabilization, while a breakdown could weaken demand again. Tactical Takeaway Bitcoin’s demand picture is starting to stabilize after several months of weakness. ETF flows have moved back into positive territory and Strategy continues to accumulate aggressively, creating two meaningful sources of demand for the market. However, Bitcoin still trades as part of the broader risk-asset complex. With the Nasdaq now approaching its 200-day moving average, the macro backdrop remains an important variable. So here is what to watch next: Whether ETF inflows remain consistently positive in the coming weeks. Whether the Nasdaq stabilizes or breaks below its 200-day moving average. If both signals hold up, Bitcoin could continue building a base. If risk assets weaken, the current improvement in demand could fade quickly. That’s it for today. Thanks for reading. Cheers, Nick P.S. Every week, our team conducts extensive research analyzing market data, tracking emerging trends, and creating professional-grade charts and analysis. Our mission: Deliver actionable macro and Bitcoin insights that help institutional investors and financial advisors make better-informed decisions. Ready for institutional-grade research that puts you ahead of the market? Click below to access our premium insights. Upgrade to paid You're currently a free subscriber to Ecoinometrics. For the full experience, upgrade your subscription. Upgrade to paid   Like Comment Restack   © 2026 Ecoinometrics 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 Unsubscribe