Matt Hougan CIO Bitwise: Why Bitcoin Could Eventually Reach $1 Million and What Might Slow It DownWith global M2 expanding and institutional adoption growing, Matt Hougan argues Bitcoin’s upside remains enormous — but the road will not be without obstacles.
What’s HappeningPrice ActionBitcoin has had a strong week, rising nearly 10% and currently sitting at a gain of around 9.38%. The move appears to reflect a rebound after recent market uncertainty. As the initial shock from geopolitical tensions begins to settle, some investors are reassessing Bitcoin’s role in the current environment. Periods of conflict often lead governments to increase spending, which can contribute to rising inflation. In that context, assets with fixed supply tend to attract attention. Bitcoin’s capped supply means it cannot be inflated in the same way as traditional currencies, making it increasingly appealing to investors looking for protection against long-term currency debasement.
Figure 1: BTC trending up this past week. From a technical perspective, BTC is attempting to break out of the range it has been stuck in for the past six weeks. If the breakout holds, it could open up a move to $80,000. Should it fail, there remains the risk of a test of the 200-week moving average and Realised Price, which have not yet been reached in this bear market.
Figure 2: Current technical outlook So, should price convincingly break out, the upside target is the $80,000 area, which is the bottom of the Q4 2025 range. On the downside, the 200-week moving average is at $59,000, with Realized Price at $54,500.
Matt Hougan CIO Bitwise: Why Bitcoin Could Eventually Reach $1 Million and What Might Slow It DownBitwise CIO Matt Hougan believes many Bitcoin valuation models miss a key assumption: they treat the store-of-value market as fixed. In reality, history suggests that when economic stress rises, the total pool of assets used to protect wealth tends to expand. Concerns around sovereign debt, persistent monetary expansion, and geopolitical instability are already pushing investors toward assets designed to preserve value. Traditionally, gold has dominated that role. Increasingly, however, Bitcoin is entering the same conversation.
Figure 3: Global M2 money supply and BTC One major structural driver is the expansion of global liquidity. As central banks increase the global M2 money supply, more capital searches for scarce assets capable of holding value over time. Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million coins makes it fundamentally different from fiat currencies that can be expanded during periods of monetary stimulus. If global liquidity continues rising and Bitcoin captures a larger share of the store-of-value market, Hougan argues that a $1 million price becomes plausible over time. However, the path is far from guaranteed.
Figure 4: Gold vs Bitcoin Price Recent market performance highlights the competition. Over the past several months, gold has outperformed Bitcoin, showing that investors still turn first to the traditional safe haven during uncertain periods.
Figure 5: Largest global assets Bitcoin also remains relatively small compared with other major assets. Gold’s market value still dwarfs Bitcoin’s, meaning the cryptocurrency would need to capture a meaningful share of global wealth to approach a $1 million valuation. Higher interest rates, improving economic stability, or slower adoption could delay that transition. But if monetary expansion continues and Bitcoin gains broader institutional acceptance, Hougan believes its long-term upside remains substantial. Want the full picture? Pro members get 200+ exclusive live charts, instant alerts, expert analysis, and weekly reports from our team. Join thousands of Bitcoin investors who’ve stopped guessing. The Bitcoin Magazine Pro Team. Bitcoin Magazine Pro
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Invest wisely, stay informed, and let data drive your decisions. Thank you for reading, and here’s to your future success in the Bitcoin market! Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions. We sincerely appreciate your support and hope you found this content valuable. Please leave a like and let us know your thoughts in the comments section; we always welcome feedback from our audience!
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Monday, March 16, 2026
Matt Hougan CIO Bitwise: Why Bitcoin Could Eventually Reach $1 Million and What Might Slow It Down
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