Bitcoin ETF Inflows Are Becoming PersistentAlso Bitcoin Is Getting Closer To Test Its Long-Term Trend & Inflation Is Rising Again
Welcome to Ecoinometrics’ Friday edition. Each week, we analyze the three most critical market signals impacting Bitcoin and macro assets, delivering institutional-grade insights through data-driven charts and analysis. Today we’ll cover:
Right now, the market is sending mixed signals. Demand is improving, price is starting to recover, but the macro backdrop is not fully supportive. That kind of setup is where transitions happen and where it becomes critical to separate what is actually changing from what only looks better on the surface. In case you missed it, here are the other topics we covered this week:
Get these professional-grade insights delivered to your inbox: Bitcoin ETF Inflows Are Becoming PersistentBitcoin has been moving higher in April, but the more important shift is happening under the surface. Demand is starting to stick. You can see it clearly in the ETF flows. Over the past few weeks, Bitcoin ETFs went through a nine-day streak of net inflows. That’s the longest stretch of consistent demand we’ve seen in this entire bear market. The last time flows looked like this was in October 2025, right as Bitcoin was pushing into its all-time high. After that, demand disappeared and the market rolled over. What’s different now is not the size of the inflows, but their persistence. The chart shows a clear change in behaviour. Outflow streaks are becoming shorter and less frequent, while inflow streaks are starting to extend again. That kind of shift is what a rebuilding demand regime looks like. Right now Bitcoin doesn’t need massive inflows to move higher. It needs consistent ones. When demand shows up day after day, it creates a steady bid under the market. And historically, that kind of persistence has been strongly associated with positive returns over the following weeks and months. This doesn’t guarantee an immediate breakout, but it does shift the odds. Demand is rebuilding. And importantly, this isn’t just isolated to ETF flows. As we discussed earlier this week, other demand indicators are also starting to turn in the same direction. The signal here is broader than a single data series. We covered that down in detail on Wednesday.
Bitcoin Is Getting Closer To Test Its Long-Term TrendPrice is not just bouncing. It’s starting to reconnect with its long-term trend. Bitcoin is still trading well below its all-time high, and a 40% drawdown is not something you can ignore. But the structure is improving. The recovery is becoming more consistent, and that is now showing up in how price interacts with its 200-day moving average. The chart below tracks how far Bitcoin’s price sits from its 200-day moving average. Right now, the ratio is still below 1, which means price has not reclaimed that long-term reference point yet. But the gap is closing. A move above 1 would be a first sign that price is moving back above its long-term trend. A flattening 200-day average would make the recovery signal stronger but we are far from that. The 200-day moving average is where longer-term positioning starts to change. When Bitcoin remains far below its 200-day average, rallies are usually still part of a damaged market structure. When price gets back above it and holds there, the recovery has a better chance of attracting longer-term capital. That’s not about short-term momentum it’s about whether the market is willing to reprice Bitcoin higher over time. What we’re seeing now is the transition phase. (For what typically happens after Bitcoin reclaims its 200-day trend, we went through the data and expected return profiles in detail in Wednesday.) Now price is rising while the trend is still negative, which creates a slow convergence toward a potential crossover. If Bitcoin manages to reclaim its 200-day average and hold above it, that would mark a meaningful shift in the market structure. Until then, the recovery is real, but not confirmed.
Inflation Is Rising AgainThe latest inflation data leaves very little room for interpretation. Headline PCE inflation has moved back up to 3.5% year-on-year, pushed higher by the recent surge in energy prices. That part is easy to explain. Oil has moved sharply due to the war in Iran, and that feeds directly into headline inflation. But that’s not the real issue. The chart shows that core inflation has been drifting higher for months now. At 3.2% year-on-year, it is moving in the wrong direction, and it has been doing so well before the latest energy shock. Core services, which tend to be the most persistent part of inflation, remain elevated as well. That’s important because the Fed cannot ignore core inflation. Energy shocks can be temporary. Core inflation is not. When it starts rising again, it signals that price pressures are becoming embedded in the economy. That is exactly the kind of environment where the Fed is forced to stay cautious, even if growth remains solid. That’s where we are now. The economy is holding up. The labor market is stable. But inflation is getting worse, and that removes the room the Fed needs to ease policy. At the same time, financial conditions have been improving, which helps explain why risk assets have been able to move higher despite that constraint. We went through that dynamic in more detail earlier this week. But as long as core inflation keeps drifting higher, the path toward lower rates remains limited.
Tactical TakeawayThings are getting better, but they’re not fully in sync yet. Demand is clearly improving and price is starting to follow. That’s enough to lean constructive here. But the trend hasn’t flipped and the macro backdrop is still a constraint, so this isn’t the kind of setup where you want to go all in. If you’re increasing exposure, it makes sense to do it gradually as the signals come through. The next real test is the 200-day trend. If Bitcoin can move above it and stay there, that’s usually where recoveries start to build more consistently. That’s the kind of confirmation that changes how you think about the move. On the flip side, the flow picture matters just as much. If the recent improvement in ETF demand fades and we slip back into sustained outflows, that would be an early sign that this recovery is losing support. For now, the direction is improving. But this is not a guaranteed recovery pattern yet. That’s it for today. Thanks for reading. Cheers, Nick P.S. Every week, our team conducts extensive research analyzing market data, tracking emerging trends, and creating professional-grade charts and analysis. Our mission: Deliver actionable macro and Bitcoin insights that help institutional investors and financial advisors make better-informed decisions. Ready for institutional-grade research that puts you ahead of the market? Click below to access our premium insights. You're currently a free subscriber to Ecoinometrics. For the full experience, upgrade your subscription.
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