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	Forwarded this email? Subscribe here for more TBL Thinks: AI killing India tech hub, AirBnB dives, California electricity prices, & mortgage rates fall TBL Thinks Aug 9   READ IN APP   Dear Readers, Its Thinking Time! We have a good one for you this week as we go straight into AI’s potential effects on India’s tech outsourcing market, AirBnB shares plunging, the increasing costs of utilities, and a sharp fall in mortgage rates. TBL Thinks is our way to summarize the most important paywalled, longer reads relevant to global macroeconomics, helping you cut through the noise. With that in mind, please enjoy. Unchained empowers you to fully control your Bitcoin with a collaborative multisig vault, where you hold two of three keys and benefit from a dedicated Bitcoin security partner. Purchase bitcoin directly into your cold storage vault and eliminate exchange risks with Unchained's Trading Desk. Unchained also offers the best IRA product in the industry, allowing you to easily roll over old 401(k)s or IRAs into Bitcoin while keeping control of your keys. Don’t pay more taxes than you need to. Save $1,745 on a bitcoin IRA & keep control of your keys—now with no setup fee and your first year free. Use promo code AUGUSTIRA when you create an account. Limited time offer. AI Threatens India’s Tech Hub AI is Coming for India’s Famous Tech Hub (WSJ) AI is gunning for India’s technology outsourcing business, and as the industry pivots to adapt the changes could affect a large number of jobs. The bigger outsourcing companies are already using AI and have plans to integrate it through their systems, but that could spell trouble for smaller companies running call centers or doing other basic tasks within business process outsourcing. India’s $250 billion outsourcing industry, which employs 5.4 million people and contributes about 8% of the country’s economy, could have reeling impacts from the AI disruption: ”more than 80% of companies in the S&P 500 outsource some operations to India, according to HSBC.” The industry added about 60,000 jobs in the year end in March, the lowest annual increase in a decade, while India’s three largest tech companies Tata Consultancy Services, Wipro and Infosys saw a combined headcount drop of 60,000 for the same time period. The slowdown is attributed to overhiring coming out of the pandemic when the industry added 450,000 employees in a single year. Yet another example of AI disinflationary impulses—even the cheap labor in India is being replaced by algorithms. ❌ DON’T WRITE YOUR SEED ON PAPER 📝 It’s estimated that ~30% of Bitcoin is lost forever. Poor seed phrase security is a big reason why. This is why we use Stamp Seed, a DIY kit that enables you to hammer your seed words into a durable plate of titanium using professional stamping tools. Heat-resistant to 3,000ºF, rust-proof, crush-proof, and time-proof Compact and easy to hide No loose parts, such as screws or letter tiles Take 15% off with code TBL. Get your Stamp Seed today! AirBnB Shares Plunge AirBnB Shares Slide by Most Since 2022 on Weak Outlook, Bookings (BBG) Following a third consecutive quarter with a downbeat forecast for its investors, AirBnB shares plunged by the most in two years after the company issued a disappointing outlook and warned on slowing demand from US vacationers. We view this as a modest confirmation of our unemployment-linked consumer slowdown outlook. Although bookings grew 8.7% in the second quarter, they were still well below analysts’ estimates. AirBnB also expects “sequential moderation” of growth bookings in the third quarter. The company’s latest bookings outlook is set to be the lowest pace of growth since 2020. Large group bookings for parties five and more was the fastest growth segment in North America for a fifth quarter. Californians Reeling from High Power Bills Why Californians Have Some of the Highest Power Bills in the US (WSJ) As temperatures continue to surge, so do Californian’s electricity bills. The state’s big utilities are spending billions to bury power lines and insulate wires, while at the same time moving quickly away from fossil fuels by building big solar and wind farms and transmission lines to carry the power.  Even as nationwide utility companies are passing on the cost of capital expenses to their customers, California has seen the sharpest increase in the country. Electricity prices in the state have nearly doubled during the past decade and are now higher than those of anywhere but Hawaii. California is also pushing the move to electrify everything faster than any other part of the country, thereby increasing its demand for electricity. Nationwide utility providers are taking expensive steps to protect electric lines and generators in the face of fire, hurricanes, and extreme weather, while also trying to increase capacity with increased demand. For the 12 months through May, the price of electricity nationally has risen at nearly double the rate of consumer prices overall. Relief for Home Buyers Mortgage Rates Drop to 15 Month Low (WSJ) A slight respite arrived for prospective homebuyers as mortgage rates fell to the lowest level in more than a year. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 6.7%, last seen in May 2023, and the sharpest weekly decline in nine months. If sustained, lower mortgage rates could help bring priced-out Americans back into the market for homes. Home sales were lowest in almost 30 years in 2023. With the inventory of homes for sale still below historic averages, the big drop in mortgage rates is giving hope to some. Mortgage rates aren’t directly tied to the Fed’s moves, but they tend to loosely follow the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note. As we have been saying, get those refi docs ready for 2025. Bitcoin & global macro research. Upgrade to paid Until next time, TBL Thinks Unchained empowers you to fully control your Bitcoin with a collaborative multisig vault, where you hold two of three keys and benefit from a dedicated Bitcoin security partner. Purchase bitcoin directly into your cold storage vault and eliminate exchange risks with Unchained's Trading Desk. Unchained also offers the best IRA product in the industry, allowing you to easily roll over old 401(k)s or IRAs into Bitcoin while keeping control of your keys. Don’t pay more taxes than you need to. Save $1,745 on a bitcoin IRA & keep control of your keys—now with no setup fee and your first year free. Use promo code AUGUSTIRA when you create an account. Limited time offer. Thanks for reading The Bitcoin Layer — for access to all content, upgrade to paid! Upgrade to paid   Like Comment Restack   © 2024 Nik Bhatia 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 Unsubscribe