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Gold, Bitcoin, Rates, and Liquidity: An Analysis with Checkonchain

James Check (Checkmatey), Augustine Carrasco, and Nik Bhatia

Sep 15

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Dear Readers,

As we continue to pack more value into all TBL Pro subscriptions, we continue our collaboration efforts with the Checkonchain team:

Go check them out

As per last time, we will open up with their insightful report, and then close off with our macro/rates outlook.

As I read through the TBL team’s piece, their reference to the recent strong performance of gold immediately hit me as the topic I wanted to cover.

Readers will know from my post in April titled Gold’s Tremendous Rally, that Gold holds an important 10% weighting in my portfolio. I am very confident that if Bitcoin didn’t exist, I would have ended up a goldbug, because the problems I see in the fiat system would no doubt be just as acute as they are today.

The reason I hold 10% of my savings in gold is not because I think it will outperform Bitcoin over the long term (I don’t think it will), but because it provides me with assurances and stability that I need for shorter-term savings with a 1- 2-year time horizon.

Gold is the ultimate monetary Schelling point. I don’t have to explain anything fancy for my parents to understand gold’s investment thesis. Gold is the prevailing ‘meter’ of value, and it is one of the tools that has helped me think about the finance world in a relative sense.

I also believe gold is the oldest functioning fire alarm for liquidity, and it tends to move in a way that precedes moves in Bitcoin. It is uncommon for gold to care much about intra-day noise, but it really gets moving in instances when the liquidity fire-hose is about to go through a major regime shift.

Today’s post is jam-packed with macro insights from both the Checkonchain and The Bitcoin Layer teams, where we collectively cover:

Expectations for interest rates and the odds of a Fed cutting cycle.
Insights gleaned from the US jobs market about US economic strength.
Signals from the TBL liquidity index, and what it means for Bitcoin.
How I think about assets using Gold as the meter of value.
Patterns of gold accumulation by nations and ETFs.
Comparisons we can draw between the Gold and Bitcoin ETFs.
How Bitcoin is at an important decision point vs its yellow metal cousin.

📈 Reminder: you can find the charts from our articles on the Checkonchain Charting Website, and a guide in our Charts Tutorial Video.

Premium Members will find the TL:DR summary, video update, and the rest of the written post below. Consider upgrading to premium today to unlock the rest of the content!

Disclaimer: This article is general in nature, and is for informational, and entertainment purposes only, and it shall not be relied upon for any investment or financial decisions.

TL;DR...

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