Dear Readers, It’s Thinking Time! It’s a big one this week as we cover rising gold prices and what that means for emerging markets, rare earth minerals and China’s dominance on the sector, the administration’s move away from Trump’s signature tariffs, and finally Trump’s main demands for China as the two try and negotiate a fragile truce. TBL Thinks is our way to summarize the most important paywalled, longer reads relevant to global macroeconomics, helping you cut through the noise. With that in mind, please enjoy.
Is the fiat retirement system sinking? With markets uncertain, layoffs on the rise, and monetary policy shifting, it might be time to rethink how you protect your long-term savings. On October 28 at 12 PM CT, Mark Moss and Unchained’s Jeff Vandrew will cover:
Tuesday, Oct 28 at 12:00 PM CT — online, free to attend.
We are also happy to announce our newest sponsor this month: Arch Lending! At TBL, we help you decode Bitcoin’s macro trends and give clear market signals—holding Bitcoin is just the beginning. Arch lets you borrow against your Bitcoin—unlock cash without selling:
Stay long, stay liquid. Use code “Nik” for 0.5% off interest rate for 2 years. All That Glitters is GoldEver since the quote “I have an affliction of the heart and only gold can cure it” found its way into Layered Money, this author has found several opportunities to use it to her advantage. Those days could soon be coming to an end with gold’s recent historic rally. Some, however, are enjoying the windfalls this rise has brought their way, boosting investor confidence in countries that mine and buy the metal. South Africa, which has the world’s deepest gold mines, is seeing its stocks have their best year in two decades, with shares of gold miners tripling in value, while the rand is near a one-year high. Gold’s rally has contributed to slowing inflation for South Africa, as the government’s sovereign bond yield fell below 9% for the first time in more than seven years, making it easier for the country’s central bank to cut interest rates. Another country benefiting from gold’s rally is Ghana, Africa’s top gold producer, the credit rating of which has been upgraded by Moody’s Ratings. Ghana’s currency has appreciated a whopping 38% this year versus the dollar. Bloomberg writes that “emerging-market countries rank among the biggest buyers of bullion, boosting national coffers,” adding that gold holdings fan a wealth effect for bullion-producers and buyers alike. While EM is affected, especially in the mining countries, how is the United States affected by the rally? And what about China specifically, as they have accumulated obscene amounts of physical gold over the past decade to further its attempt at de-dollarization? While we don’t have great answers for the micro reasons of this gold rally, the macro reasons appear almost too obvious—escape being subject to dollar dilution via credit creation.
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Tuesday, October 21, 2025
TBL Thinks: Gold, Rare Earths, and Tariffs - Oh My!
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