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Bitcoin Mayhem, How Did TBL Liquidity Do?

Picking apart our TBL Liquidity Indicator's ability to front-run the recent move.

Nik Bhatia and Augustine Carrasco

Feb 6

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Dear Readers,

What a move in the orange coin. Of late, we have expressed our satisfaction with the way TBL Liquidity was able to get ahead of the recent move, while disappointment that we did not do two things well: 1) heed our Indicator better, and 2) communicate it more clearly to you all.

One of the keys to investing is removing emotions as much as possible, precisely why we designed TBL Liquidity — it gives us a macro and liquidity bias that only enormous dollar markets and balance sheets can provide.

Our Liquidity framework, through its ongoing R&D, has proven to be a powerful one despite its kinks, such as the delay associated with our TBL Liquidity Indicator. It told us to sell on January 14th, when the price was above $90,000. As a research provider, we must lean into it so that you learn and benefit next time while making asset allocation decisions.

The foundations of money are shifting in ways that are easy to feel but harder to name.

Persistent deficits, rising debt, and central bank behavior are quietly reshaping how investors think about preservation and risk.

In The Debasement Trade, James Lavish explains why currency debasement is structural, why traditional portfolio assumptions are being tested, and why gold tends to move first while bitcoin often moves further as the implications compound.

The report covers:

Why debasement is not cyclical
How inflation and financial repression stress familiar portfolios
Why gold signals early—and bitcoin expresses the shift later, with more asymmetry

Download Report Here

🟢 TBL Liquidity Indicator 🔴

At this point, all of you are pretty familiar with what these famous green and red dots represent:

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