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A Good Year for Treasuries: TBL Weekly #164

Augustine Carrasco

Dec 5

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Dear Readers,

Last week, we decided to provide our TBL Pros with some more consistent analysis from us via daily charts. One of our charts this week shows the comparative performance of different fixed-income ETFs over 2025. In a rate-cutting year, these assets performed well, returning an average of nearly 5% in 2025:

What’s most interesting about this chart, however, is where US Treasuries lie—at or above the average for most of the year. As the risk-free asset of the world, one would expect these to be at the bottom end of the fixed-income performance:

One could argue that this is due to a flight to safety investor base, but Investment Grade (IG) ETFs were kicked to the curb (more on this later):

So, why was it such a good year for Treasuries? We argue that it is a healthy combination of both rate cuts and a flight to safety.

But let’s unpack that in today’s TBL Weekly.

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